Marco Rubio's master plan continues ... lose!
Marco Rubio is acting on his brilliant plan to be the last establishment candidate standing by losing the first two contests, and then taking South Carolina by storm and winning there. The only thing standing in his way is if he can really manage to come in third in Iowa, where he's significantly reduced his ad time.
Some of the decrease in Iowa ad spending likely stems from the campaign's switch from 60-second biographical ads to shorter 30-second ads that are considered more effective as responses to attacks such as those Rubio is facing from his rivals for the GOP nomination and the super PACs supporting them. By some calculations, Rubio has been the target of $8.5 million in negative ads in Iowa—by far the most of any candidate in the field. The majority have come from a super PAC supporting former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush's floundering campaign, which early on identified Rubio as the challenger best positioned to coalesce the establishment Republican support Bush needed to gain traction. […]
But in South Carolina, things could line up better for Rubio. His campaign and super PAC operatives have strong ties in the state, home to the South’s first primary, and data from The Tracking Firm show that Rubio's campaign increased its ad buys in the state by $70,000 during the period when it was reducing its Iowa buys. Still, in the last reliable South Carolina poll, which took place in December, he was well behind Trump and basically tied with Cruz and retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson.
That could in part depend on how badly he loses Iowa and New Hampshire. He's got to be third in Iowa and second in New Hampshire for this to work, but if he's a really distant second or third, he might just start to have the loser stink. He's also at the mercy of how Ted Cruz performs, and an establishment that's considering coalescing behind Trump because they hate Cruz so, so much. If Rubio isn't in striking distance of Cruz, a panicked GOP could turn to Trump just to make sure Cruz is destroyed.
He's still got a Super PAC spending for him in Iowa and New Hampshire, so he's by no means abandoned those first states. But with all the millions thrown at him to destroy him in Iowa, that might not be enough.