Canadian study: transition to renewables 'irreversible.' But U.S. needs to accelerate transformation

Over the past couple of years, a steady stream of good news has appeared on the renewable energy front. The latest comes from a couple of sources. Clean Energy Canada has released a new publication, “The Transition Takes Hold.” Bottom line: The transition from fossil fuels to renewable sources “now appears irreversible.” Meanwhile, the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) reports that renewable electricity-generating capacity of 161 gigawatts was added across the planet in 2016, bringing the capacity total of renewables above 2,000 gigawatts for the first time. The worldwide total electricity-generating capacity from all sources—fossil fuels, nuclear, renewables, biomass—is about 6,000 gigawatts.

China, the United States and India were responsible for half the world’s $348 billion total investment in renewables in 2016. That was down significantly over 2015, but produced about the same gains in renewable installations. Overall, in the past five years, $2 trillion has been invested in renewables worldwide. Fewer and fewer so-called experts are saying renewables will never amount to anything.

The Canadian group said that, globally, about 6.7 million people have jobs in renewables. The solar industry alone is now creating one of every 50 new jobs in the United States, one of out of every 80 since 2009. Expectations are that this transformation of the energy system will expand greatly in the next few years, with a huge drop of 57 percent by 2025 in the cost of large-scale solar plants—those of more than 200 gigawatts. Onshore and offshore wind costs are expected to fall by 26 and 35 per cent respectively.

Merran Smith, executive director of Clean Energy Canada, wrote in the report’s executive summary:

“Tipping points: those elusive moments when a technology goes mainstream. Much has been written in the debate over whether renewable energy has passed, is fast-approaching, or is still a ways from crossing that threshold.

“The true tipping point will only become apparent in the rearview mirror, and it won’t be defined by a single moment or breakthrough. It will be crossed at different times, in different countries, driven by different forces.

“But the clean energy transition now appears irreversible.”

While Democrats have been responsible for initiating and establishing most state policies that promote efficiency gains and renewable sources, the transformation of the energy system is not a red or blue issue. Texas and Iowa, for instance, two Republican-dominated states, are ahead of the other states in using wind resources. The Lone Star state has 20 gigawatts of installed wind-generating capacity, a fourth of the nation’s wind total 82 gigawatts. This has come about from $38 billion in wind investment, which supports more 25,000 wind jobs in Texas today.

Meanwhile, wind generated 36 percent of Iowa’s electricity in 2016. The American Wind Energy Association says 8,000 Iowans now work in direct and indirect jobs in the state’s wind industry. Some $11.8 billion in investment has built a wind-related infrastructure that includes 11 manufacturing and assembly plants. State authorities predict there could be as many as 17,000 wind-related jobs by 2020, with another $9 billion investment.