Putin Could Use 'Anticorruption' Protests to His Advantage

Nikolas K. Gvosdev

Politics, Eurasia

The protests come at a time when the different political clans within the Kremlin have begun to accelerate their jockeying for position.

Protest marches were held over the weekend in one hundred cities across the Russian Federation, the largest manifestation of political discontent in the country since dissatisfaction with the announcement that Vladimir Putin would seek a third term as president boiled over into the streets five years ago. Corruption is an especially salient issue in Russia because of the way that the Kremlin has pushed the mantra of the need to sacrifice for the national interest—for the general population to accept the burdens imposed by sanctions and defense spending as a price for maintaining Russia’s status in the world. When the Russian political and business elite makes it clear that they aren’t planning to adopt a more austere lifestyle as well, while social benefits are cut, it triggers quite a vociferous response.

Indeed, the recent history of political protest in Russia makes it clear that corruption or pocketbook issues are a far more mobilizing questions for Russians than defending abstract liberal values or supporting regime change. After several years when appeals to nationalist sentiments have helped to tap down popular discontent, the protests of this past weekend are a reminder of the perennial Achilles’ heel that corruption presents to the Kremlin: when the government is seen as ignoring the concerns of ordinary folk. (What may, in turn, have greater impact is whether truckers angry about new tolls on Russian highways, measures designed to increase state revenues for new infrastructure projects, will begin to take steps to impede traffic across the country to protest the taxes.)

But it is important to stand back and analyze the situation carefully. It is easy to look at the events of the last several days and to jump to conclusions that the facts do not yet warrant. For some, it would be poetic justice if Vladimir Putin and his government were to be brought down in some sort of revolutionary action, a fitting payback for the man many blame for having deprived Hillary Clinton of her rightful place in the White House. For others, the protests can be used as an excuse not to pursue any sort of negotiations with Russia over Ukraine or Syria since Putin seems to be on the verge of “falling.” But is Russia indeed on the verge of its own color revolution?

Read full article