Karen Karapetyan as Armenia’s new premier: internal and external interests coincide – Vigen Hakobyan
In an interview with Tert.am, political scientist Vigen Hakobyan spoke of the reasons for Armenian Prime Minister Hovik Abrahamyan’s resignation and factors accounting for expected appointment of Yerevan ex-mayor Karen Karapetyan as Armenia’s premier.
Mr Hakobyan, did Hovik Abrahamyan’s statement on the reasons for his resignation – we are a country faced with transition problems, which needs joint efforts by the government and society, new approaches, a new start to improve the social and economic situation – sound convincing? Do you consider the reasons convincing? If you do not, what is the reason for the premier’s resignation?
By concealing the reasons for his resignation to a certain extent in his statement, Mr Abrahamyan actually admitted his cabinet failed to ensure an economic breakthrough. If fact, he admits some achievements, but the major problem, social polarization, remains, which, I think, is of not only economic, but also psychological nature. The gap between the authorities and society is so wide that society will not accept the authorities. And glaring evidence therof is the July events, which made it clear that Armenia was on the threshold of revolutionary changes, and if the authorities did not take measures, society, with its radical passions running high, was ready to do it. And it could have found foreign forces interested in that. And I think that Hovik Abrahamyan’s statement stems from the political situation, not only from the economic situation. When Hovik Abrahamyan speaks of a complicated geopolitical situation, but, at the same time, admits failed efforts to combat corruption and monopolies, he thus admits a failure and a need for a new start. As to his sincerity, we did not feel a smell of such an urgent change just a week ago. To sum up, I can say Hovik Abrahamyan reveived an offer he could not refuse.
With respect to a new start. Does it necessarily require Karen Karapetyan. I have named him because he is Yerevan ex-mayor and has been named as main candidate for the post of Armenia’s premier.
If it is Karen Karapetyan, I think a number of factors should be noted. And the situation resembles 1997, when the then president Levon Ter-Petrosyan attempted to imnrove a rather grave situation by involving new forces and persons – Armen Sargsyan and Robert Kocharyan.
Karen Karapetyan is not a new figure, he is known to be an efficient manager, Yerevan mayor.
Nothing new. But what you have mentioned – an efficient manager with contacts abroad. And, in this respect, it is an experience in involving a new person, as, although he passed a way together with authorities, he could save his positive image from them.
If you mean the national consent government plan, announced by the president, thenthe explanation behind any move to invite him will be his apolitical and non-partisan image of a person who has very specific economic issues to resolve. So the RPA too, will try to preserve that image.
So does that national consent government address only the prime minister or does it deal also with the other cabinet members. The question is the RPA formed a coalition with the ARF-D (Armenian Revolutionary Federation Dashnaksutyun) in winter. If that applies to all the members, should all the ARF-D ministers maintain their portfolios then?
I think the cabinet’s resignation will necessitate certain changes, especially among the Republican ministers. As for Dashnaksutyun, I think is a political agreement which will be respected until 2017. New negotiations may get under way to consider the personalities. So I am sure the quotas will be in place. But I do not rule out the possibility that certain ministers will be unacceptable to Karen Karapetyan, and they will have to propose other candidates from the Party.
As for the other ministers, I do not rule out their replacement either. I believe it will be a good chance to get rid of undesired personalities or resolve problem that go back to the April war [over Nagorno-Karabakh].
You cited internal causes as an explanation to Hovik Abrahamyan’s resignation. What about external ones? Why Karen Karapetyan? Do you see any external factor here, and if you do, can you consider it a call by Russia or a gesture to win over Russia?
If you mean the national consent government plan, announced by the president, thenthe explanation behind any move to invite him will be his apolitical and non-partisan image of a person who has very specific economic issues to resolve. So the RPA too, will try to preserve that image.
So does that national consent government address only the prime minister or does it deal also with the other cabinet members. The question is the RPA formed a coalition with the ARF-D (Armenian Revolutionary Federation Dashnaksutyun) in winter. If that applies to all the members, should all the ARF-D ministers maintain their portfolios then?
I think the cabinet’s resignation will necessitate certain changes, especially among the Republican ministers. As for Dashnaksutyun, I think is a political agreement which will be respected until 2017. New negotiations may get under way to consider the personalities. So I am sure the quotas will be in place. But I do not rule out the possibility that certain ministers will be unacceptable to Karen Karapetyan, and they will have to propose other candidates from the Party.
As for the other ministers, I do not rule out their replacement either. I believe it will be a good chance to get rid of undesired personalities or resolve problem that go back to the April war [over Nagorno-Karabakh].
You cited internal causes as an explanation to Hovik Abrahamyan’s resignation. What about external ones? Why Karen Karapetyan? Do you see any external factor here, and if you do, can you consider it a call by Russia or a gesture to win over Russia?
My opinion is that [President] Serzh Sargsyan received a proposal from Russia, which he could not simply turn down. Of course, Russia has recently been very anxious over Armenia’s undermined positions, as it sees the need to take certain actions with respect to the country. And it is trying to use its leverages when it comes to human resources. Hence I think they aren’t opposed to it, to say the least. I think the internal and external interests coincide at this point.