Hovik Abrahamyan’s resignation inaugurates new developments – Stepan Danielyan

Tert.am has interviewed Stepan Danielyan, a Yerevan-based political analyst, over possible policy changes and new developments expected after the resignation of Hovik Abrahamyan, now a former prime minister of Armenia.

Mr Danielyan what situation is Armenia likely to face in the wake of Prime Minister Hovik Abrahamyan’s resignatiom?

I think what is going on now is a change in [policy] vector. Local authorities’ role is increasing in Armenia, so the new Constitution may cause the situation spiral out of control. I think new role-players are coming onto the arena.

What exactly led to Hovik Abrahamyan’s resignation? Do you think the authorities are preparing for [the 2017] parliamentary election?

We can only make guesses as we do not possess the internal information. But I believe the problem is broader in essence. It is part of the operation “successor” which is now in progress. That successor is expected to be a representative of powerful influential circles in terms of both capital and geopolitical assistance. So the issue needs clarification until the election time. What we need is an answer to a range of questions, such as the government’s economic policies and investment strategies. Against the serious economic situation, the revolts are likely to continue.

Also, the Artsakh [Nagorno-Karabakh] issue is important. Russia too, has to offer guarantees to the next government, as President Serzh Sargsyan has expired his limit of trust.

Additionally, we must try to understand what [President] Serzh Sargsyan meant by saying “government of trust”. Many believe [such a government should inspire trust] in the society, but it is also possible that he didn’t mean Armenia’s society. 

What is the expected domestic political spectrum?

It is clear that struggle for power is waged within the ruling circles, between different wings, and opposition forces could seek their niche as well. Of importance is also geopolitical influence on this spectrum, but Russia’s influence remains decisive.

What role has Hovik Abrahamyan played in Armenia’s domestic political life as a political figure and as prime minister?

He has splayed a key role. To understand it, we should first of all understand the responsibility of the head of an election campaign office during “elections.” Armenia’s authorities are formed during elections, but not by means of vote. During elections, the head of an election campaign office reaches backstage agreements with all the key figures “working” to get the necessary results, and the head of the election campaign office stands as guarantor. Among the “actors” are local kingpins, businessmen, heads of local government bodies. The head of the election campaign office is a likely successor of power.

Armenia’s new Constitution changes the situation. And if the head of the election campaign office fails to name the candidate for Armenia’s premiership, we can say his political career is coming to its end.

Time will show if he will be able to act as an opposition member. But I do not think he wll dare to as he has much to lose.

As regards his activities as Armenia’s premier, he has not carried through necessary reforms, to say nothing of the rest.