Pre-election polls closed and out came the Trump-ets

The bookies have been major determinants of investor money flows over the last couple of weeks, though many would not have expected the underdog to pull through in yesterday’s US election. Odds of both US presidential candidates have both tightened and widened over the period, prompting a number of asset classes to fluctuate.

Over recent weeks, my opinion has been that election polls were not truly reflective of the probability of a Trump presidency. My concerns of there being many down low Trump supporters, ashamed to publicly disclose their support for the candidate, following his controversial outbursts, were unfortunately proven right, although the final pre-election polls got me believing Clinton had it in the bag.

Now that the unlikely scenario is a reality, Donald Trump has officially been announced as the next president of the United States. Markets have as a result sold off across the board, prompting flights into safe haven assets, though were quick to rebound upon market open.

The Mexican peso dropped 12 per cent on the results, adding to months of uncertainty around Mexico’s future trading terms with the US. The US accounted for 80 per cent of Mexico’s total exports...