The Second Civil War

The movie Civil War opened in theaters on April 12th. The movie portrays a second American civil war, set in an unspecified near future time. California and Texas have succeeded from the Union and violence has broken out between warring factions all over the country. This movie is timely, because many Americans believe the country is more culturally divided than ever before. Factually this is not true, but in this case perception trumps reality.

Polling indicates that most Americans are moderates, not extremists, and moderates do not start violent revolutions. A recent poll found that 9 out 10 Americans agree on these core values: the right to vote, the right to equal protection under the law, the right to privacy, and freedom of religion. These agreements indicate a common set of beliefs among Americans.

So why do so many Americans believe that we are extremely divided? Because of three negative realities that intersect: the media, American historical ignorance, and the primary election process.

By the term media I mean the national news media and social media, not local media. National news media, both broadcast and print, are almost exclusively negative in orientation. They focus on all forms of violence, conflict, divisiveness, corruption, scandal, ineptness and greed; the worst of human behavior and traits. They focus on differences between people, not commonalities. They view this negativity focus as a public service, but a real public service would be focusing on the positive events far outweigh negative events. Social media adds fuel to this perceptual negativity fire by providing a perfect venue for rumors and conspiracy theories. National news organizations and social media together are doing all they can to create the reality that Civil War portrays.

The perception of extreme cultural divide is further enhanced by American ignorance of our own history. Historical ignorance negates the ability to compare the present to the past. Not knowing the past makes the present the one and only reality that has ever existed. Thus a perceived crisis in the present is the only crisis that Americans have ever faced. Most Americans have no knowledge of the actual cultural divides that marked the Civil War, the American Revolution, or the Vietnam War divisiveness. The current media-driven cultural divide is nothing compared to the real cultural divisions of those eras.

A flaw in our electoral process adds even more to the perception of cultural divisiveness. Because of this flaw extremists from both political parties frequently dominate the national political agenda and dialog. The divisiveness between the national political extremes gives the impression that the country is indeed heavily divided. The discrepancy between extremist dominance in DC and moderation out in the country could be resolved by instituting mandatory voting.

Moderates generally do not vote in primaries, but extremists do, so both parties select more extremist candidates for the general election. If more moderates voted in primaries, more moderates would be elected to Congress, resulting in less political divisiveness, more cooperative and efficient governance, and a reduction in the perceived cultural divide.

Unfortunately there is no easy way to stop this dangerous triad of influences. National news organizations are not going to stop focusing on the negative, social media organizations will not be banned, Americans are not going to start learning about their own history, and mandatory voting would require a Constitutional amendment. Given this, the growing perception of cultural divide may become the reality depicted in Civil War.

In the movie a rogue president abandons the Constitution, discards democracy, and thereby ignites country-wide violence. There is one American institution that could prevent this scenario: the American military. Military members swear an oath of loyalty not to an individual, but to the Constitution, and thereby to the rule of law. They have paid the price for creating, maintaining and expanding democracy.

Could elements of the military go rogue? Maybe, but the military majority will abide by their oath and prevent the second civil war.

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