Nagorno-Karabakh peace process: no landmark should be expected – Alexander Iskandaryan

It is the Armenian-Azerbaijani border, where escalation may recur, rather than negotiations that poses risks, political scientist Alexander Iskandaryan told reporters on Thursday as he spoke of possible risks in the current negotiating process.

“I cannot say we can expect escalation on the border in the near future. It may happen later,” Mr Iskandaryan said.

According to him, it may be more active sniping.

The negotiations are supposed to reduce a probability of escalation.

“They are trying to find mechanisms for de-escalation. I am skeptical about it. I do not think the OSCE Minsk Group co-chairs have sufficient political means of pressing Azerbaijan and preventing it from escalating the situation,” Mr Iskandaryan said.

A decline in oil prices will play an immediate role in the Nagorno-Karabakh peace process.

“But it is a long-term program, because a decline in oil prices will not influence the settlement process at once,” Mr Iskandaryan said.

Commenting on the Armenian-Azerbaijani presidential meeting in Moscow, Russia, the expert said that one should not hold more serious expectations. Moreover, no progress in the negotiations should be expected now.

“After the April war, we saw real attempts to change, but activity has now gradually slackened. Even a presidential meeting should not be expected to ensure any progress,” Mr Iskandaryan said.

He also commented on Nagorno-Karabakh President Bako Sahakyan’s recent interview with the French parliament’s online publication (Journal du Parlement). Mr Iskandaryan is surprised at the misperception of the interview by Armenian circles: people mostly focused on the president’s statement that the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict could only be settled by means of mutual concessions.

“But his highlighting a need for ceasefire and withdrawal of snipers, Nagorno-Karabakh’s involvement in the negotiations and discussing mutual concessions later was talked about less,” Mr Iskandaryan said.

The conditions in question are acceptable to Azerbaijan.

“The sides are so far from each other that their conceptions of mutual concessions are so different that they cannot reach an agreement. This is the reason why I say nothing new should be expected,” Mr Iskandaryan said.