Up to 10,000 people may already be infected with coronavirus

'I must level with the British public, many more families are going to lose loved ones before their time.'

Up to 10,000 people in the UK may already be infected with coronavirus, the government’s chief scientific adviser has said.

Sir Patrick Vallance gave the assesment as Boris Johnson moved Britain into the ‘delay phase’ of tackling coronavirus after an emergency meeting of ministers and health experts found it could no longer be contained.

Speaking at a press conference following the emergency Cobra meeting, the PM said the disease ‘continues and will continue to spread’ and called it the ‘worst public health crisis in a generation’. Those with a high temperature or cough should stay at home for seven days, he said.

Sir Patrick said the UK was likely to have between 5,000 and 10,000 coronavirus cases and is currently ‘about four weeks or so behind Italy and some other countries in Europe’.

He said: ‘There are currently 590 cases that have been identified in the UK and there are more than 20 patients in intensive care units. If you calculate what that really means in terms of the total number, it is much more likely that we have between 5,000 and 10,000 people infected at the moment.

‘That is still a relatively small number.’

Those aged over 70 are advised not to go on cruises and schools are advised not to go on international school trips, Mr Johnson said. ‘We are considering banning major public gatherings such as sport events,’ the PM said, adding: ‘The scientific advice is this has little effect on the spread – but it does place a burden on other public services.’

Speaking at Number 10, he said coronavirus ‘is now a global pandemic and the number of cases will rise sharply, the true number is higher, indeed much higher than we’ve so far determined.

‘It’s going to spread further, I must level with the British public, many more families are going to lose loved ones before their time.’

Schools in the UK are not currently to be closed ‘but this may change as the disease spreads,’ he said. ‘Schools should only close if they are specifically advised to do so,’ Mr Johnson added.

He ended his statement saying it is ‘more vital than ever’ to wash hands and added: ‘If things seem tough now, we must remember, we will get through this.’

Another 134 people have tested positive for coronavirus, bringing the total number of UK cases to 590. Two more people have died from the virus, bringing the total number of British coronavirus deaths to 10.

Moving to delay means social distancing measures could be brought in, such as restricting public gatherings and issuing more widespread advice to stay at home.

England’s chief medical officer, Professor Chris Whitty, explained the new isolation period, and said: ‘The new things that we want people to hear is to ask anybody who has a cough that is continuous and new, or a temperature of 37.8°C, to stay at home for seven days.

‘The reason for this – and this will interfere with their work and social life in a significant way – so it’s important to understand why, the first thing is that they will affect older people who they might come directly or indirectly into contact with. The second thing is, it lowers the peak to help ease pressure on the NHS and the third thing is, it can lead to increased delay – pushing it further into the period where the NHS is not so under pressure.’

People will be tested if they have symptoms of coronavirus, regardless of whether they have travelled anywhere with a coronavirus risk, he said.

Prof Whitty added: ‘The virus seems to have its maximum transmission around the time of the first symptoms and two or three days afterwards, by seven days the great majority of people are not infectious.

‘Some people with mild symptoms can spread this virus to a lot of people. So people even with mild symptoms, should stay at home.’

The announcement comes following news that Ireland will close all schools, colleges and childcare facilities in the Republic from tomorrow. Irish premier Leo Varadkar said they will remain closed until March 29 as a result of the outbreak, which is now regarded as a global pandemic. Museums, galleries and other tourist destinations in Ireland will also close as a result of the action.

Mr Varadkar said: ‘I know that some of this is coming as a real shock and it is going to involve big changes in the way we live our lives. I know that I am asking people to make enormous sacrifices. We’re doing it for each other.’

The total number of Covid-19 cases in Ireland stands at 43 and there has been one death.

In Scotland, First Minister Nicola Sturgeon said it would be ‘inappropriate to continue as normal’ as the pandemic continues to spread. Cases of coronavirus in Scotland almost doubled in a day, from 36 to 60.

She announced a move to ban mass gatherings of at least 500 attendees from next week to combat Covid-19 infections and protect frontline healthcare workers.

Officials from the General Medical Council and NHS England have written to doctors to say they may need to work outside their usual area of expertise and in unfamiliar circumstances as they deal with a ‘very abnormal emergency situation’.

The letter said GP practices, hospitals, trusts and health boards should support doctors as ‘clinicians may need to depart, possibly significantly, from established procedure in order to care for patients in the highly challenging but time-bound circumstances of the peak of an epidemic’.

The shift in UK policy comes after Donald Trump dramatically escalated the US response to the coronavirus pandemic, slapping a travel ban on continental Europe.

The suspension of travel between the United States and Europe, excluding the UK and Ireland, will last for 30 days starting on Friday and has been widely criticised.

Mr Trump blamed the European Union for not acting quickly enough to address the outbreak of the virus and saying US clusters were ‘seeded’ by European travellers.

Paul Hunter, professor in medicine at the University of East Anglia, said the science does not support such a ban.

He said: ‘Introducing an international travel ban at a time when the US is now one of the countries with the most rapidly accelerating internal transmission rates will do little if anything to reduce the burden of infection within the US.’

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