Time To Tank: Who To Root For As Blackhawks Eye Another First Overall Pick

The last week of the NHL regular season is finally upon us. Next Thursday marks the end of the campaign league-wide, with the Chicago Blackhawks’ season ending on Wednesday against the Sharks. With just four games left, the Blackhawks are of course eliminated from playoff contention, and they’ve now shifted their focus to a less important (but still important) goal: finishing as low in the standings as possible to aim for as high of a draft pick as possible.

The abysmal Canucks have already clinched the “worst team in the league” mark—they’ve put up 52 points with just five games to play. That means they’ll have a 25.5% chance at the top pick—far from a guarantee, but certainly the best odds. 

But Chicago finds itself in the middle of a dead heat for the second-lowest record, making its next four games that much more important. The Blackhawks are 28-36-14 with 70 points, just lower than the Flames (73), Rangers (75), and Kraken (75). Tiebreakers ensure that the Panthers and Maple Leafs, each with 78 points, are eliminated from contention for the second-highest odds, so Blackhawks fans looking to root for other lottery teams to help Chicago’s odds only need to keep an eye on three teams. 

Of course, the Blackhawks can clinch the second-best odds by going 1-2-1 over their last four games. That shouldn’t be too difficult, as none of the four teams they still have to play (Hurricanes, Blues, Sabres, Sharks) are eliminated from playoff contention (the Blues and Sharks are on the outside looking in). 

If the Blackhawks are able to finish with the second-lowest points in the league, they’ll have a 13.5% chance at the top pick, 14.1% chance at the second, 30.7% at the third, and 41.7% at the fourth. That’ll make these last few games huge for Chicago’s long-term outlook—this draft class is top-heavy, and a “big three” of Gavin McKenna, Ivar Stenberg, and Keaton Verhoeff is starting to emerge. With a 58.3% chance at picking inside the top three, the Blackhawks would be in better shape than if they finished with the third-lowest points, which would give them just a 30.5% chance at the top three. If they end up picking fourth or worse, they’ll probably have to choose from names like Caleb Malhotra, Chase Reid, and Carson Carels—still great players, but with a fair bit less upside. Happy tanking!