Bulls Vs. Bucks Down the Stretch — And Chicago Is Primed To Fail
As Chicago’s season stumbles to a close down the stretch, headlines have been all over the place this month. Starting with the dozens of different lineups they’ve deployed over the last 20 games, continuing to Billy Donovan potentially coaching his final few weeks with the organization, then moving to updated draft odds and lottery standings, yesterday added another unfortunate twist with the downward spiral of Jaden Ivey and Chicago’s cutting ties in response to his social media activity. All of the stories have led to this moment, with seven games between the Bulls and the chance to escape this nightmare of a 2025-26 campaign. Between here and the finish line, however, there’s still one important race on everyone’s radar aside from the Portland Trail Blazers play-in tournament rally. This is what needs to be monitored, and how both teams are being counter-productive toward the end goal.
Bulls Versus Bucks For Prime Draft Lottery Position
Recent history has not been in the Bulls’ favor in this matchup; they’ve lost 18 of the last 27 meetings against Milwaukee since 2021. This includes Chicago’s lone playoff appearance in the Arturas Karnisovas era, when the team up north handled business 4-1 in the first round of the 2023 NBA Playoffs. Finally, AK’s group has an advantage. Over the last few outings of the year, the Bulls own a .5-game advantage in the draft lottery chase, currently standing at 29-46, compared to the Bucks’ 29-45. If the season ended today, the Bulls would have significantly better odds of a top selection purely because of a one-slot advantage.
#Bulls will be mathematically eliminated from the play in with a loss against the Thunder
This will further lock us into a pick in the 8-9 range in this upcoming draft pic.twitter.com/dVwB9G7R4Q
— Just Another Year Chicago: Bulls (@JAYChi_Bulls) March 27, 2026
This race for the ninth-best lottery odds is shaping up to be a perfect opportunity for the Bulls to shoot themselves in the foot. They’ve got the easiest schedule left in the NBA, including playing the Indiana Pacers and Washington Wizards in three of their outings, and they’re still playing Matas Buzelis and Josh Giddey maximum minutes in refusal to go full-tank mode. Even simply swapping places with Giannis Antetokounmpo and company could carry major implications into the summer.
One Spot Makes A Huge Difference
With the two teams stuck in a place where it’s very unlikely they’ll catch any teams with a worse record or pass any clubs with a better standing, their lottery odds will land in one of two places. How significant can the difference between nine and ten be, anyway? In this case, a monumental one.
In the ninth-worst record positioning, Chicago has a 20.2% chance of landing in the top-four. Just one spot behind, Milwaukee’s chances drop to 13.9%, marking a 32% drop in odds. In the latter positioning, if the Bucks miss the top four, their new ceiling is the 10th pick, where they have a 65.9% chance of selecting there and are 86.1% to land between 10 and 12. For AK’s group, again, only one slot difference; their ceiling aside from the top four would become the ninth pick, with a 50.7% chance of drafting there. They have a 79.6% likelihood of selecting a score in the nine-to-eleven range.
That’s quite the odds shift for side-by-side records in the final regular-season standings, underscoring the importance of the Bulls losing each of their remaining games. Will AK and Donovan find a way to screw this one up, or will they finally come to their senses, bench some of the future assets to remain healthy, and find their way to the best possible draft scenario?