2026 NCAA Tournament Projections: Florida Locked Into Final No. 1 Seed?

The race for the NCAA Tournament’s No. 1 seeds is nearly settled — with one spot still very much in play. In his latest bracket projections, FOX Sports bracket forecaster Mike DeCourcy projects Michigan, Duke, Arizona and Florida on the top line as conference tournaments are underway across the country. Michigan, Duke and Arizona have separated themselves from the field over the course of the season and appear firmly positioned to hold their places as No. 1 seeds heading into Selection Sunday. Florida is the newest addition to that group. The Gators surged onto the top line after closing the regular season in dominant fashion, while UConn slipped following its surprising loss to Marquette in the Big East regular-season finale. That combination allowed Florida to jump the Huskies as the fourth and final 1-seed. The result of the SEC and Big East Tournaments could determine how secure that spot really is. If Florida wins the SEC Tournament, the Gators would almost certainly lock up the final No. 1 seed. But if they stumble and UConn goes on to win the Big East Tournament, the debate for the last place on the top line could quickly heat up again. With that, DeCourcy shares his latest NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament projections: EAST REGION SOUTH REGION MIDWEST REGION WEST REGION And it’s never too early to check in on the bubble. According to DeCourcy's projections, Texas, SMU, VCU and New Mexico are the last four teams in the tournament, while Indiana, Auburn, Cal and Cincinnati are the first four out. As for conference representation, the SEC leads the way with 10 teams, while the Big Ten has nine teams. The ACCand the Big 12 each have eight teams in DeCourcy's latest tournament projections. The Big East and the West Coasthave three teams represented, while the Mountain West and Atlantic 10 have two teams. Selection Sunday is four days away, and these projections will inevitably evolve. For now, DeCourcy’s latest bracket forecast offers a clear snapshot of who’s rising, who’s falling and which programs are already building the résumés they’ll need when March Madness arrives.