Caitlin Clark rookie season prop odds and picks: Will she break the WNBA 3-point record?

There are so many props for Caitlin Clark's rookie year.

The wait is over for Caitlin Clark to join the WNBA. She’s officially a member of the Indiana Fever, and the questions around just how impactful she can be as a rookie are only going to intensify as the May 14 regular-season opener approaches.

For those optimistic about her chances to have an immediate impact, FanDuel has odds on some of those pressing questions about Clark’s debut campaign. Here’s a look at each question and my pick for whether they’re worth a bet.

Clark will lead Indiana in scoring (-280)

The odds are more favorable than I would have guessed, so it’s apparent folks expect Clark to have an immediate impact. However, I wouldn’t touch this bet at these odds. With three returning players who averaged about 15 points or more last season, including leading scorer Kelsey Mitchell at 18.2, I’m guessing Clark would need to average close to 20 points to lead the team. Only two rookies in the history of the WNBA have done that.

Pick: No

Her first basket will be a 3-pointer (-150)

You take this bet without a question. While Clark may need time to learn how to attack WNBA defenses, her long-range shooting will be a threat from day one.

Pick: Yes

She will average 22+ PPG (-135)

My answer to the first question takes care of this one as well. I don’t think she averages 20 points as a rookie, in part because she’s an excellent playmaker who I believe will look to find opportunities for teammates like Aliyah Boston and NaLyssa Smith.

Pick: No

She will record 130+ 3-pointers (-110)

This is a really tough call, because 130-plus threes would be a WNBA single-season record. The current most is 128 by Sabrina Ionescu last year. We just haven’t seen a rookie with the type of freedom to let them fly at a necessary rate to come close. However, considering the hype following Clark into the league, she’ll have unprecedented freedom as a rookie. So she’ll come close.

Pick: Yes

She will record 3+ triple-doubles (+190)

Even as triple-doubles have happened more frequently in recent years, they’re still somewhat rare in the W. And even rarer for rookies. She may get one or two, but I’d be stunned if Clark was able to get three-plus in one season when only three players all-time have that many for their careers.

Pick: No

She will have 1+ three in every game (+340)

If this sounds like a lock, it absolutely is not. Which is why these odds are what they are. Even Ionescu failed to make a 3-pointer in two different games during her record-setting 2023 campaign. And she escaped with just one 3-pointer in five other games. However, these odds are just long enough for me to sprinkle something on it. Clark is the all-time leading women’s college basketball 3-point shooter, after all.

Pick: Yes

She will make 10+ threes in a game (+1400)

Absolutely not. Clark didn’t even do this in college, with all the freedom in the world to let it fly from anywhere on the court.

Pick: No

She will score 50+ points in any game (+2600)

This is where the hype around Clark gets a little out of control. Only three players in the history of the W have scored 50 points, and just one of those players was a guard. None were rookies. Even Clark’s idol, Maya Moore, topped out at 48 points during her illustrious career.

Pick: No

Clark will break the WNBA single-game scoring record of 54 points (+3100)

My answer to the last question takes care of this. Clark’s high at Iowa was 49 points.

Pick: No

Bonus: The Fever will win 25+ regular season games (+165)

In other words, can Indiana improve by 12 wins over last year’s 13-27 record. It’s a lot to ask, even as the Fever have catapulted into the top-five of WNBA title odds. Considering just three teams topped 25 wins last season, and I don’t consider the Fever to be among the three best teams this year, I’ll say no. At best, they’ll jump into the same tier as the Dallas Wings, who finished with 22 wins last year.

Pick: No