Swapping Jacob deGrom for Justin Verlander actually improved the Mets’ World Series odds
Oddsmakers are over Jake.
Only days after watching starter Jacob deGrom—arguably the greatest pitcher of his generation—leave for the Texas Rangers, the New York Mets added reigning Cy Young-winner Justin Verlander on a two-year, $86 million deal.
As far as the argument for which pitcher means more for their team, it appears the Mets and Verlander have the edge.
Over at BetMGM, the Mets’ 2023 World Series odds went on a rollercoaster ride, moving from +1100 before deGrom left for Texas, to +1700 after he signed with the Rangers and then back up to +900 on Monday following the acquisition of Verlander.
Yes, that’s correct. Oddsmakers believe Verlander provides more value to the Mets than deGrom.
.@Mets odds to win World Series at @BetMGM
+1100: Open
+1700: deGrom to Rangers
+900: sign Verlander
— John Ewing
(@johnewing) December 5, 2022
Here’s how the two players stack up going back to 2018:
Jacob deGrom
| Year | Age | Tm | Lg | W | L | W-L% | ERA | G | GS | GF | CG | SHO | SV | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | IBB | SO | HBP | BK | WP | BF | ERA+ | FIP | WHIP | H9 | HR9 | BB9 | SO9 | SO/W | Awards |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 30 | NYM | NL | 10 | 9 | .526 | 1.70 | 32 | 32 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 217.0 | 152 | 48 | 41 | 10 | 46 | 3 | 269 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 835 | 218 | 1.98 | 0.912 | 6.3 | 0.4 | 1.9 | 11.2 | 5.85 | AS,CYA-1,MVP-5 |
| 2019 | 31 | NYM | NL | 11 | 8 | .579 | 2.43 | 32 | 32 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 204.0 | 154 | 59 | 55 | 19 | 44 | 1 | 255 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 804 | 169 | 2.67 | 0.971 | 6.8 | 0.8 | 1.9 | 11.3 | 5.80 | AS,CYA-1,MVP-10 |
| 2020 | 32 | NYM | NL | 4 | 2 | .667 | 2.38 | 12 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 68.0 | 47 | 21 | 18 | 7 | 18 | 0 | 104 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 268 | 180 | 2.26 | 0.956 | 6.2 | 0.9 | 2.4 | 13.8 | 5.78 | CYA-3 |
| 2021 | 33 | NYM | NL | 7 | 2 | .778 | 1.08 | 15 | 15 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 92.0 | 40 | 14 | 11 | 6 | 11 | 0 | 146 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 324 | 373 | 1.24 | 0.554 | 3.9 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 14.3 | 13.27 | AS,CYA-9 |
| 2022 | 34 | NYM | NL | 5 | 4 | .556 | 3.08 | 11 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 64.1 | 40 | 22 | 22 | 9 | 8 | 0 | 102 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 239 | 126 | 2.13 | 0.746 | 5.6 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 14.3 | 12.75 | |
| 162 Game Avg. | 13 | 9 | .590 | 2.52 | 34 | 34 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 216 | 166 | 66 | 61 | 19 | 49 | 2 | 261 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 849 | 155 | 2.62 | 0.998 | 6.9 | 0.8 | 2.1 | 10.9 | 5.30 | ||||
| Year | Age | Tm | Lg | W | L | W-L% | ERA | G | GS | GF | CG | SHO | SV | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | IBB | SO | HBP | BK | WP | BF | ERA+ | FIP | WHIP | H9 | HR9 | BB9 | SO9 | SO/W | Awards |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 35 | HOU | AL | 16 | 9 | .640 | 2.52 | 34 | 34 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 214.0 | 156 | 63 | 60 | 28 | 37 | 0 | 290 | 8 | 2 | 5 | 833 | 164 | 2.78 | 0.902 | 6.6 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 12.2 | 7.84 | AS,CYA-2,MVP-10 |
| 2019 | 36 | HOU | AL | 21 | 6 | .778 | 2.58 | 34 | 34 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 223.0 | 137 | 66 | 64 | 36 | 42 | 0 | 300 | 6 | 0 | 4 | 847 | 179 | 3.27 | 0.803 | 5.5 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 12.1 | 7.14 | AS,CYA-1,MVP-11 |
| 2020 | 37 | HOU | AL | 1 | 0 | 1.000 | 3.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6.0 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21 | 156 | 5.69 | 0.667 | 4.5 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 10.5 | 7.00 | |
| 2022 | 39 | HOU | AL | 18 | 4 | .818 | 1.75 | 28 | 28 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 175.0 | 116 | 43 | 34 | 12 | 29 | 0 | 185 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 666 | 220 | 2.49 | 0.829 | 6.0 | 0.6 | 1.5 | 9.5 | 6.38 | AS,CYA-1,MVP-10 |
| 162 Game Avg. | 17 | 9 | .647 | 3.24 | 34 | 34 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 223 | 187 | 87 | 80 | 23 | 62 | 2 | 226 | 7 | 1 | 6 | 909 | 132 | 3.36 | 1.117 | 7.6 | 0.9 | 2.5 | 9.1 | 3.63 | ||||
| W | L | W-L% | ERA | G | GS | GF | CG | SHO | SV | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | IBB | SO | HBP | BK | WP | BF | ERA+ | FIP | WHIP | H9 | HR9 | BB9 | SO9 | SO/W | Awards | ||||
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table