I can't get over Andy Reid's baffling fourth-down call late in the Chiefs' loss

With the game on the line, Chiefs coach Andy Reid took the ball out of Patrick Mahomes' hands.

The Chiefs were without their two best wide receivers and did not have much of a run game on Sunday night, so it’s not a surprise that their 19-13 loss to the Colts devolved into Patrick Mahomes playing hero ball every time he dropped back to pass, which happened a lot.

Considering the fact that he’s the reigning NFL MVP and probably the best quarterback in the league, that’s not a terrible strategy to employ. But with the game on the line, Andy Reid decided to take the ball out of his best player’s hands, and, a day later, I can’t get over how bad of a decision it was.

With the Chiefs trailing by six points late in the fourth quarter, Reid called for a run from a condensed I-formation, which the Colts easily stuffed to force a turnover on downs.

What makes this particular call so frustrating is how it runs counter to Reid’s offensive philosophy. Kansas City is a spread-to-run team. Instead of putting a bunch of blockers in the run box and running into a wall, Reid likes to spread things out and force the defense to spread out along with the formation in order to create space. If the defense doesn’t cooperate, it will get burned by Reid’s package of run-pass options.

Here’s an example of that concept at work. The Chiefs spread things out and have Mahomes read the weakside linebacker:

With him moving to his left to chase the run, Travis Kelce has the space to beat his man to the inside. The play-call essentially forced the Colts into picking their poison. On the fourth-down call, however, there was no such dilemma.

The analytics community has shown that how many defenders the defense puts in the box is one of the most significant factors contributing to the success of a run play. So by lining up with a ton of bodies in the box, Kansas City severely diminished its chances of converting. Had the Chiefs allowed the Colts to call that play for them, a run up the gut out of I-form might have been the choice Inday’s staff came up with.

What the Colts would not have wanted to see is a spread formation that put Mahomes in the gun and allowed him to choose to run or pass based on the pre-snap look from the defense. And with the Colts playing a ton of man coverage, it would have been a simple read for Mahomes to make.

Reid never gave his star quarterback, or offense, a chance.