Can Democrats actually win a Texas Senate campaign this time?

Democrats have long fantasized about winning a statewide campaign in deep-red Texas. Just as it did when Beto O’Rourke ran, the party is dreaming big, with a U.S. Senate primary election this week setting the stage for the next attempt in November.

Texas Democrats are “itching for a fight” in the Senate election, said NBC News. Voters this week will decide if State Rep. James Talarico or U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett will be the party’s nominee. Both candidates are “casting themselves as fighters,” but they have differing approaches. Talarico is trying to “energize voters across the political spectrum” in a fight against elites, while Crockett is attempting to harness Democrats’ “core supporters in a fight against Trump.” The winner of the primary will “provide some clues” about how rank-and-file Democrats want to win back power in an era of GOP dominance.

Republicans, meanwhile, are “freaking out” about the primary battle on their side of the ballot, said Politico. Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton is challenging incumbent Sen. John Cornyn, with the chance of a follow-up runoff race in May because a third Republican candidate, U.S. Rep. Wesley Hunt, may make it impossible for either man to win an outright GOP majority this week. Paxton, while plagued by scandal, is a “MAGA hero” seemingly well-positioned to knock off Cornyn. But some GOP observers worry a Paxton primary victory would “put Senate Republicans’ majority at risk.”

What did the commentators say?

“Democrats are going wild” over the possibility of a Texas victory in November, said Bud Kennedy at The Fort Worth Star-Telegram. And there are “bright signs” for the party: Of the million who have already voted in the primary, “one-fourth are completely new to any party primary.” But Democrats still very much have an uphill battle to fight. Winning a statewide race will take “heavy turnout of Democrats, plus a sweep of independent voters” as well as GOP defections. Talarico “could get there” but Crockett has “yet to strike a chord with independent voters.” The lesson? “Do not drink the blue Kool-Aid.”

Texas “will be ground zero in the 2026 midterm elections,” said Ed Kilgore at New York magazine. The differences between Talarico and Crockett are “more a matter of style and strategy than of ideology,” while the divisions between Paxton and Cornyn “seem sharper and more deep-seated.” Establishment Republicans are “viscerally disgusted” by Paxton, whose supporters regard Cornyn as a “RINO sellout.” A general election between Crockett and Paxton “should be wild, loud, and unpredictable.”

What next?

Crockett has a “double-digit lead” over Talarico in pre-primary polling, said The Texas Tribune. Republicans, though, believe Crockett “would be a weaker opponent” in the general election, said The Downballot. That is why Gov. Greg Abbott (R) is running ads “pretending to attack the GOP’s preferred candidate while actually hoping to boost her with Democrats.” It is a campaign that comes while Talarico “otherwise enjoys a huge advertising advantage over Crockett.” The primary election is Tuesday.