Scott narrowly leads Mucarsel-Powell in Florida Senate race: poll  

Sen. Rick Scott (R-Fla.) is narrowly leading Democrat challenger Debbie Mucarsel-Powell by 3 points, according to a new poll. 

A survey from the left-leaning firm Public Policy Polling, paid for by Emily’s List and first shared with The Hill, shows Scott leading Mucarsel-Powell 44 percent to 41 percent, respectively. Because the margin of error is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points, the two are effectively tied. 

Emily's List has endorsed Mucarsel-Powell in the Senate race.

The poll showed Scott with a 34 percent approval rating, compared to a 44 percent disapproval rating; 34 percent of respondents said they had a favorable opinion of the Florida Republican compared to 48 percent who felt the opposite.  

At the same time, the former congresswoman is not widely known in the state, as 63 percent said they were unsure about their thoughts on her. 

When respondents were asked if Scott deserved to be reelected or if they thought it was time for someone new, 53 percent said it was time to elect someone new.  

Mucarsel-Powell, who served one term in Congress representing Florida’s 26th Congressional District between 2019 and 2021, is running against Scott in November. Public polling on the race has been sparse. 

A poll from the University of North Florida’s Public Opinion Research Lab released in November showed Scott with a 39 percent favorable rating compared to 49 percent who had an unfavorable opinion of him.  

That poll also showed 48 percent of respondents there who said they did not know or refused to answer when asked whether they had a favorable opinion of the Florida Democrat. Thirty percent separately said they had an unfavorable opinion of her, while 22 percent said they had a favorable opinion of her. 

Scott has at times rankled members of his party, including staging a leadership contest against Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) last cycle that he lost. Scott is mulling another bid for McConnell's post after the Kentucky Republican announced he wouldn't be seeking another term as Senate GOP leader. 

Scott also released a multi-point policy plan last year that would initially have sunset Medicare and Social Security before revising it to exclude those programs after facing blowback from both parties. The Florida Republican argued then, "I have never supported cutting Social Security or Medicare, ever."

Scott has also proved to be a resilient candidate. He won his gubernatorial campaign in 2010 against Democrat Alex Sink and former Rep. Charlie Crist in 2014 by just over a point. In 2018, Scott beat then-Sen. Bill Nelson (D-Fla.) by just less than half a percentage point. 

The nonpartisan election handicapper Cook Political Report rates the seat “likely Republican.”

The Public Policy Polling survey was conducted between Feb. 29 and March 1 with 790 Florida voters surveyed. The margin of error is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.