The Memo: Trump set to tighten grip on GOP nomination with possible Super Tuesday sweep

Former President Trump is set to tighten his lock on the GOP presidential nomination on Super Tuesday, with plausible expectations that he could sweep all ​15 contests that are taking place.

The main hope for his last remaining rival, former United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley, would appear to be a victory in Virginia, buoyed by the moderate voters of the affluent suburbs abutting Washington, D.C.

But Haley is already far behind in the delegate race that will ultimately determine the nomination. 

As of Monday afternoon, Trump had secured 244 delegates to Haley’s 43. The North Dakota GOP caucuses, taking place Monday, have another 29 delegates at stake.

Haley notched her first victory Sunday, when she carried the District of Columbia primary. That victory was history-making, as her campaign noted it made her the first woman ever to win a GOP presidential primary. 

But the D.C. win does not change the shape of the race, nor is it a harbinger of things to come. The Republican electorate in the District is highly unrepresentative of the grassroots of the party across the nation.

That point was seized upon by the Trump campaign. Press secretary Karoline Leavitt said Haley had been “crowned Queen of the Swamp by the lobbyists and DC insiders that want to protect the failed status quo.”

Haley has sharpened her attacks on Trump over the course of the primary. In the run-up to recent contests, she has contended Trump cannot win a general election, mocked him for his failure to serve his nation in uniform and suggested that he and President Biden are each too old to be president.

Haley has also grown noncommittal on whether she would endorse Trump if he ultimately wins the nomination. 

Trump’s combative rhetoric, hard-line positions on topics like immigration and capacity to channel the passions of his party’s base appear to be a solid recipe for winning the nomination.

Polling in the Super Tuesday contests — 15 states are holding Republican primaries or caucuses — has been predictably sparse after Trump romped home in Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina. All of those victories came by double digits. In Haley’s home state of South Carolina, Trump won by 20 points.

There has been some polling in California, which votes Tuesday — and it puts Trump up by a colossal 55 points, according to the polling average maintained by The Hill and Decision Desk HQ (DDHQ).

There are a total of 865 delegates at stake for Republicans on Super Tuesday.

Trump aides have been predicting for some time that it will be the end of the road for Haley. 

Susie Wiles and Chris LaCivita, two of the most senior people on the Trump campaign, were predicting as long ago as late January that Super Tuesday would be “lights out” for her.

Haley has not given a clear statement of her intentions beyond Super Tuesday. She could stay in the contest to keep offering up an alternative version of conservatism, but the conventional wisdom holds that an exit is likely.

One way or another, it is a remarkable political comeback for Trump following his defeat in the 2020 election — when he lost the popular vote by around 7 million votes — and his impeachment for instigating the Capitol riot of Jan. 6, 2021.

Back then, Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell (Ky.) declared that “there is no question — none — that President Trump is practically and morally responsible for provoking the events of the day.”

Since then, Trump has come to dominate the party once again. Last week, McConnell announced he would step down as Senate Republican leader in November, a role he has held since 2007.

Real doubts still hang over Trump, of course.

At least some of the 91 criminal charges against him could come to trial before the election. Several polls have indicated that a criminal conviction would cause Trump real electoral damage. 

One such survey earlier this year, from Bloomberg and Morning Consult, found that 53 percent of voters across seven key swing states would refuse to vote for Trump if he were convicted.

Haley is also largely right when she makes the argument on the stump that she would be a stronger candidate in a general election against Biden. 

A New York Times/Siena College poll released Saturday found Haley defeating Biden by 9 points among registered voters in a hypothetical match-up.

Haley appears to have greater appeal to the center ground, too. She was beating Biden by 9 points among independent voters, while Biden took a plurality of independents over Trump by a 4-point margin.

But GOP voters are largely unmoved by that argument when the same polls show Trump with an advantage, albeit a smaller one, against the politically weakened president.

The Times poll had Trump leading Biden by 4 points among registered voters. It also showed a startling 47 percent of voters who “strongly disapprove” of Biden’s job performance and an additional 12 percent who “somewhat disapprove."

The same poll indicated 71 percent of the likely 2024 electorate believed Biden was “just too old to be an effective president.” Biden, at 81, is just 4 years older than Trump. But only 41 percent of the likely electorate believes Trump is too old.

Trump aides are predicting a rout on Super Tuesday. There is every reason to predict they are correct.

As a competitive contest, the GOP primary looks all but over.

Now the nation braces for a 2020 rematch this November.

The Memo is a reported column by Niall Stanage.