The calculus for Democrats is clear — Biden needs to step aside, now
The current situation is far too risky for Democrats.
President Biden has stated that if Donald Trump were not running for the Republican nomination, he may not have sought a second term. This admission demonstrates that he would prefer to not run in 2024, and likely not serve four more years in the White House. He also believes that he will beat Trump in a rematch of the 2020 election, though others may be able to do so as well.
Such a statement warrants the need for someone else to be the Democrats’ nominee, independent of who the GOP nominee turns out to be.
In addition to the president, there are presently two people who are vying for the Democratic nomination.
Dean Phillips, a congressman from Minnesota, has been both supportive of Biden during his presidency and vociferous that change is needed. In response, he has announced his own candidacy, much to the chagrin of the Democratic Party establishment. Marianne Williamson, an author and political activist, is also seeking the party's nomination.
The likelihood that either she or Phillips will win remains remote, given the structure of the caucuses and primaries that determine who will represent the party.
So who are viable candidates, waiting patiently in the wings, for Biden to voluntarily step aside (or, in the event of unpredictable circumstances, involuntarily end his position to be the Democrat nominee)?
New Jersey Sen. Cory Booker is well-positioned to make a run for the White House. He was in the running for the 2020 nomination, hence has an interest in serving. A website exists, Cory Booker for President 2024, indicating support for his candidacy, though the site explicitly notes that it is not endorsed by Cory Booker himself. However, its very existence provides ample evidence that he is willing and able to run if the opportunity presents itself.
Gavin Newsom, the governor of California, has been clear that he is not interested in running for president, and that he fully supports President Biden running for a second term. This is the necessary party line that all Democrats interested in eventually winning the White House must express. Yet if Biden steps aside, Newson can easily pivot into the race without contradicting his former statements. His recent debate with Ron DeSantis provides a mock rehearsal for bigger things that may await him.
Gretchen Whitmer, the governor of Michigan, has also been clear that she is not interested in challenging President Biden, and supports his candidacy. Yet not challenging and being willing to run if Biden steps aside make her available if the situation changes. Fox News has accused her (and Newsom) of running “shadow” campaigns, though given that Fox News is not a friend of the Democratic Party, their statement must be taken with a grain of salt. Their statement, however, is plausible, given the circumstances surrounding the president and his reelection.
The politics of who might be the Democratic nominee for president must be shrouded in secrecy. However, risk management 101 demands that the Democratic Party be prepared to pivot if — or when — Biden is unable to run. There is far too much at stake for the party to risk Biden stepping aside at the 11th hour, leaving them to scramble for a replacement that will disrupt the election.
Given that the majority of independent and Democratic voters want choices other than Biden and Trump, the two parties are playing a game of chicken to see who pivots first to more electable options. Since the Republicans must rely on the caucuses and primaries to determine their nominees this cycle, which may nominate Trump in spite of the drama surrounding him, this gives the Democrats a distinct advantage, by mitigating the risk and offering more electable candidates that can draw independent voters in key battle ground states.
In defense of Biden, he is not thinking about another four-year term, but rather, making it to and through the election, after which he can step aside in favor of the vice president. This may be the compromise Democrats are considering, pivoting to Booker, Newsom, or Whitmer as his running mate. This would be a plausible path, given Kamala Harris’ favorability rating.
What remains indisputable is that the current situation is far too risky for Democrats, and that to manage such risk, changes are needed. When those changes occur, either on top of the ticket or as Biden’s running mate, is uncertain. However, the need for such changes has become certain, given the risk calculus involved. Indeed, the question for the Democratic Party is no longer if, but when.
Sheldon H. Jacobson, Ph.D., is a professor of Computer Science at the University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign. A data scientist, he applies his expertise in data-driven risk-based decision-making to evaluate and inform public policy.