The Best, Worst, And Likeliest Justin Fields Scenarios For 2023

GM Ryan Poles and head coach Matt Eberflus set out this off-season to improve the entire Chicago Bears roster. Everybody knows it wasn’t good last year. That was by design. Poles blew up the team’s veteran core, unloading every expensive contract that wasn’t nailed down and stockpiling draft picks. This year was about using those newfound assets to build a young and athletic foundation of their own design. However, everybody knows the true reality. Much of what happens in 2023 depends on Justin Fields.

Chicago did everything in their power to help their young quarterback this spring. They kept the same offensive system in place and improved every position on the offense around him. The young quarterback enters his third year in the NFL. This is typically when players show whether or not they will be truly good. Hopes are high that Fields is poised for a significant leap as a passer. So what will happen?

Here are three scenarios fans can expect to happen and the likely consequences.

Justin Fields’ arc will go in one of three directions

Best outcome: The Jalen Hurts leap

Everybody uses him as the model now for a reason. People were skeptical about Hurts’ ability to throw after the 2021 season. Rather than give in to those fears, Philadelphia doubled down. They fortified his protection and got him a star wide receiver in A.J. Brown. Hurts blossomed. He threw for 3700 yards in only 15 games, scored 35 total touchdowns, and had a 101.5 passer rating. Everybody knew the guy was a complete football player at that point, and the Eagles were quick to lock him up with a lucrative contract extension.

Worst outcome: More of the same

People were encouraged by what they saw in 2022 from Justin Fields. His efficiency improved as a passer, with an 85.2 rating after a 73.2 as a rookie. He only threw for 2,242 yards but supplemented that with 1,143 on the ground. Scoring 25 touchdowns was also a nice development. Now ask yourself how you’d feel if he did the same thing in 2023. You’d be upset, right? The Bears spent the entire off-season upgrading his offensive line and adding a go-to receiver in D.J. Moore. If Fields can’t improve his passing yardage and efficiency after that and is forced to continue leaning on his legs, it will confirm the biggest criticisms of him. Poles will have a tough decision to make going into 2024.

Likeliest outcome: Slow start, strong finish

This is called the Jay Cutler model. The former Bears quarterback actually started his career in the same wide-zone offense Fields now plays in. Expectations were high in his second year, but things started poorly. He threw for 1,158 yards, four touchdowns, and six interceptions in his first five games. People wondered if he had learned anything. Then his familiarity with the system began to show. Over the final 11 games, he threw for 2,339 yards, 16 touchdowns, and eight interceptions. That feels like where Fields can end up. Probably around 3400 yards passing with 20-22 touchdown passes. Throw in around 600 yards rushing and 6-7 touchdowns. This would be considered a solid improvement if he can keep his interception total down.