10/12/2020 News & Commentary - Korea

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Duncan Moore.

1. North Korea's new missile able to target U.S. unveiled to send message to Trump, analysts say

2. ANALYSIS-N.Korea's Kim speaks softly, shows off new military might

3. It's naïve to take Kim Jong-un's 'friendship' talk at face value

4.  New organization cracks down on S. Korean goods on border

5. 'Top-down' nuke diplomacy with N.K. may not continue if Biden wins Nov. election: Ambassador Lee

6. North Korea shows off a gigantic new toy (that may or may not work)

7. Kim Jong-un sheds tears as he delivers rare apology to North Korea over failings

8. North Korea unveils ‘very destabilizing’ ICBM

9. A crocodile’s tears (Kim Jong-un's)

10. Schedule of Moon administration is prioritized over security. (OPCON transition)

11.  Cheong Wa Dae reviews NK leader's speech, says inter-Korean accords should be honored

12. North Korea’s new missile

13. N.K. could test-fire new ICBM depending on U.S. election results: ex-unification minister

14. Kim Jong Un’s ‘monster’ missile meant to overwhelm U.S. defenses

15. S. Korea eases social distancing to lowest level amid coronavirus downward trend

16. Japan vows to boost missile defense after North Korea parade

17. Emergency meeting held in South Korea after North Korea parades new missiles

 

1. North Korea's new missile able to target U.S. unveiled to send message to Trump, analysts say

Washington Times · Guy Taylor · October 12, 2020

My comments below.

 

2. ANALYSIS-N.Korea's Kim speaks softly, shows off new military might

TRF News · Reuters · October 11, 2020

We should look at the entire display of North Korean military capabilities from the ICBM to individual soldier equipment. Of course, they may have only developed this equipment to outfit the parade personnel and it is unlikely all their military units are outfitted with much of the advanced military equipment. But stil,l the regime wants to show us that, despite sanctions, COVID, and natural disasters, it can still produce "advanced" military equipment and hold an impressive parade. And combined with the messages in his speech, he is laying the groundwork for future blackmail diplomacy. One of his objectives may be to try to enter into an arms control negotiation process in which he will negotiate away his new monster ICBM (which has never been tested and may not even be functional) in return for concessions. This is typical North Korea negotiating behavior in which it gets something for nothing. We must not be duped (though we still have to take the monster ICBM seriously especially if it has a MIRV capability as some analysts are assessing).

 

3. It's Naïve to Take Kim Jong-un's 'Friendship' Talk at Face Value

Chosun Ilbo · October 12, 2020

It is wise to be skeptical of Kim Jong-un. 

 

4. New organization cracks down on S. Korean goods on border

Daily NK · Ha Yoon Ah · October 12, 2020

Consider the burning of South Korean goods while Kim Jong-Un is offering a phony olive branch to the South.

I think there is a translation problem with this article. I think they meant to translate it as a new "anti-capitalist group." North Korea is, after all, the Socialist Workers' Paradise.

 

5. 'Top-down' nuke diplomacy with N.K. may not continue if Biden wins Nov. election: Ambassador Lee

Yonhap News Agency · sshluck@yna.co.kr · October 12, 2020

Perhaps it will not continue. And maybe not if President Trump is re-elected as well. But as I have written, the President's unconventional experimental top down pen pal diplomacy has broken taboos and can provide flexibility to future presidents.

 

6. North Korea shows off a gigantic new toy (that may or may not work)

Gizmodo · Alyse Stanley · October 11, 2020

Until we see it tested, we should be skeptical. Of course, testing this would bust President Trump's red line and his handshake agreement with Kim. And we do have to take it seriously, especially if we have assessed that it may have a MIRV capability (which we have also never seen North Korea test). But the North now has  something to "give up" in future negotiations. If the North offers this up, it would be a typical North Korea strategy - to get something for nothing. And as I have noted, it may very well be the regime has listened to the pundits in the US who are calling for arms control negotiations. That would fit nicely into the regime's strategy to become a nuclear power and provide further opportunities to coerce and co-opt the US in terms of concessions and sanctions relief. All part of the long con and the regime's political warfare strategy with Juche characteristics.

 

7. Kim Jong-un sheds tears as he delivers rare apology to North Korea over failings

Guardian · Justin McCurry · October 12, 2020

Please do not be duped by Kim's tears. It is in the DNA of Koreans who live in the North to be able to cry on command. Yes, it is highly unusual for any Kim to apologize or appear to accept responsibility for failure. It has probably never happened. But, more important than the tears, his apology to the Korean people for the hardships was a non-apology just like the one for the brutal murder of the South Korean civil servant last month. If you study his speech, he was blaming sanctions, COVID, and the natural disasters for the impact on the economy and the suffering of the Korean people. So, his apology was really an opportunity to blame outside factors. Do not be duped.

 

8. North Korea unveils ‘very destabilizing’ ICBM

Defense One · Patrick Tucker · October 11, 2020

Sure, we can blame President Trump and all past presidents. But the blame must lie with Kim Jong-Un and his failure to allow substantive working level negotiations. The only way we will see Kim come to the negotiating table is if we lift sanctions. Does anyone think we should lift sanctions and condone all the regime's illicit and abusive behavior? Allow continued nuclear and missile development? Allow global illicit activities? Allow weapons proliferation to the Middle East and Africa? Allow cyberattacks? Allow overseas slave labor of Koreans from the North? Continue the human rights abuses and crimes against humanity upon the Korean people in the North? When you recommend sanctions relief, please include what behavior you wish to condone by North Korea.

 

9. A crocodile’s tears (Kim Jong-un's)

Korea Joong Ang Daily · Editorial · October 11, 2020

The Joongang Ilbo editorial board is rightly skeptical of Kim's tears.

 

10. Schedule of Moon administration is prioritized over security

Dong-A Ilbo · Editorial · October 10, 2020

Security versus politics? One of the important conditions of OPCON transition is a reduction in the North's nuclear threat. I think the Saturday parade illustrated that condition is unlikely to be met.

 

11. Cheong Wa Dae reviews NK leader's speech, says inter-Korean accords should be honored

Yonhap News Agency · Lee Chi-dong · October 11, 2020

We should be frank: the Comprehensive Military Agreement has been one sided, with the South providing all the confidence building measures with no reciprocity from the North. Whale has honored and will continue to honor the agreement, the North has not and never will.

 

12. North Korea’s new missile

Interpreter · Sam Roggeveen · October 12, 2020

An ominous subtitle. The author's 2018 proposal remains a terrible idea. Do this and we will be throwing South Korea under the bus (or the treads of the new tanks the North showed us on Saturday). If we withdraw troops, there will be conflict on the peninsula. And, of course, if we negotiated this settlement, it would be the exact effect the regime was trying to achieve: developing a fake missile to dupe the US.

 

13. N.K. could test-fire new ICBM depending on U.S. election results: ex-unification minister

Yonhap News Agency · julesyi@yna.co.kr · October 12, 2020

It would be quite a welcoming "gift" to whomever wins the election.

 

14. Kim Jong Un’s ‘monster’ missile meant to overwhelm U.S. defenses

Bloomberg · Jon Herskovitz & Jeong-Ho Lee · October 12, 2020

Yes, it is a monster. Of course, Godzilla is not real.

 

15. S. Korea eases social distancing to lowest level amid coronavirus downward trend

Yonhap News Agency · mlee@yna.co.kr · October 11, 2020

Too soon?

 

16. Japan vows to boost missile defense after North Korea parade

AP · Mari Yamaguchi · October 12, 2020

Recent decisions on Aegis ashore may come back to haunt Japan.

 

17. Emergency meeting held in South Korea after North Korea parades new missiles

NBC News · Yuliya Talmazan & Stella Kim · October 11, 2020

I would hope someone at the meeting brought up that the assumptions about North Korean intentions are wrong and that South Korean policy and strategy must be changed. But calling for the honoring of the CMA indicates that there likely will be no change.

 

"The OSS was 70 years ahead of its time."

- Robert Kim, Author, Project Eagle

"When the people find that they can vote themselves money, that will herald the end of the republic."

- Benjamin Franklin

"The fundamental reason for human rights being trampled in North Korea lies in the 'Dear Leader Absolutism' dictatorship.  There can be no human rights for the people in North Korea where the greatest morality and absolute law is giving one's mind and body to the Dear Leader; and living as a slave who obeys completely and unconditionally the Dear Leader - it is the only life permitted the North Korean People."

- Hwang Jang Yop, 2 DEC 99