Is John Carlson the Answer to the Leafs Defense Problems?
Almost 2 weeks following the brutal game 7 loss to the Bruins, The Leafs sit at a crossroads with their roster, and don't have a GM to make decisions as of now. Weather team president Brendan Shannahan decides to go with Kyle Dubas, Mark Hunter, or an outside hire as the next general manager of The Toronto Maple Leafs, they will be thrown right to the wolves, with pressing issues facing the team like Nylander's contract and deciding weather or not to resign veteran forwards Tyler Bozak and JVR. What most Leafs fans will tell you, though, is that the team's most important need that needs to be addressed this offseason is defense, and more specifically a right shooting defenseman. In the series vs Boston, the leafs right side featured 37 year old Ron Hainsy, who played great all season but over 3 and a half minutes a night during the regular season just on the penalty kill, along with playing number one defenseman minute at even strength takes a toll on a player of that age, and it showed. Hainsy was constantly beaten to pucks while playing the PK, and his overuse during the season may have costed the team in the playoffs. The next guy up is the young Russian, Nikita Zaitzev. Zaitzev was rewarded after a great rookie campaign in the 2016-17 season with a 7 year, 31.5 million dollar contract. Zaitzev was playing well again to start the 2017-18 season, but a broken foot in November from a blocked shot in Detroit costed him over a month of the season, and he never fully regained his form after returning from injury. Zaitzev was crucified in the Toronto media after a poor effort in games one and 2 against Boston, clarifying his need for improvement if he wants to prove he deserves the money he is getting paid. Zaitzev is one of the biggest question marks heading into next season. Last up on the right side was Roman Polak, who is one of the slowest players in the NHL. He is the symbol of an old school, rough and tough defenseman that doesn't fit todays NHL. If the leafs want to dress their rightsize, it will most likely have to come through free agency or a trade, as there are no right shot defenseman ready to step up next year(Lilegren still needs time). And since the price is sky high for a right shot defenseman on the trade market(see the Taylor Hall trade), free agency seems like the logical way to go. Unfortunately, the only legit number one defenseman on the free agent market this offseason will be John Carlson of the Washington Capitals.
John Carlson is coming off a career year, in which he put up 68 points, leading all NHL defenseman in that category, coming on 15 goals and 53 assists. Carlson can quarterback a power play, as 47 percent of his points came on the power play, and he is also solid in his own end. What Carlson can be to the leafs is the workhorse they haven't had in years. Morgan Reilly is great, but he can't be counted on for 25-30 minutes a night in a game 7 of a playoff game. This playoffs, Carlson is averaging over 27 minutes a night, acting as the number one defenseman for the Capitals through their first 11 postseason games. Carlson can also play the penalty kill, which is a huge area of need for the Leafs. Toronto basically ran Ron gainsay into the ground this year by playing him a league leading amount of time on the penalty kill, often throwing him out for the full 2 minutes. Behind Henisy, coach Mike Babcock didn't really trust anyone to kill penalties. Roman Polak was often the other guy out with Heinsy, but everyone knows he stinks. Carlson can take a lot of the pressure off Heinsy on the Pk. While I wouldn't expect Carlson to put up another 70 point season, he will almost certainly put up 50+ points while playing number one defenseman minutes, playing both special teams and also bring playoff experience to a young d group.
The problem with Carlson is going to be the contract. In todays free agent climate, players are overpaid on almost every contract, and their isn't a way around that if you want to san high profile players. A defenseman of Carlson's caliber deserves around 6.5 million dollars annually(think Kevin Shattenkirk at 4 years, 26.6 million dollars). However, Shattenkirk played poorly in the playoffs in 2017, and also took a discount to go to his hometown team, the New York Rangers. Carlson has had a great playoffs with Washington so far, averaging a point per game, so Carlson will have the right to demand more money and longer term. I would expect Carlson to ask for at least a 6 to 7 year deal at an AAV of at least 7.25 million dollars. With the upcoming contracts of Nylander, Marner and Matthews casting a shadow over the team's future, the team might be reluctant to spend big money on free agents so that they can make sure they have the big 3 locked up. However, is the big 3 enough to make consistent deep playoff runs without a solid defense behind them? Should the leafs spend big money on Carlson, or should they save their money? These are the questions facing the next general manager of The Toronto Maple Leafs.