UK’s second spike ‘growing slower than pandemic peak in March’

Experts will be able to assess if hospitalisations are leading to fewer deaths from the virus in the coming weeks.

The UK’s second Covid-19 spike is growing at a slower rate than when the pandemic first hit in March, a scientist has said.

On Tuesday, the nation recorded another 14,542 cases of the virus, bringing the total number of infections to 530,113. The number of people in hospital has now risen to 2,833 – higher than before the UK first into lockdown – but the death rate remains relatively low in comparison.

Professor Steven Riley, a member of the government’s Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE), said it would be another four weeks until experts can assess if hospitalisations are leading to fewer deaths from the virus.

He said: ‘I am concerned about what is going to happen in the next few weeks in terms of hospitalisations and deaths, but the reason I am not as concerned as I was in March is because of the speed with which the epidemic is growing at the moment, which is considerably lower than the speed it was in March.

‘I would hope that the case mix of those going into hospital are at a lower risk of severe outcomes.’

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The amount of UK cases and hospitalisations compared with the recent low daily death increase could suggest that more people are now surviving the virus, compared with the previous peak of the pandemic.

But Professor Riley told The i that Covid-19 still remained a ‘serious infection’ for anyone requiring medical treatment.

His words come as 4,000 scientists and academics backed calls for a herd immunity approach to tackling the resurgence of the pandemic. A petition said those not vulnerable to the virus should return to life ‘as normal’ amid concerns about the long-term mental health impact of social restrictions.

The so-called ‘Great Barrington Declaration’ has been criticised by medical experts who say it ignores certain aspects of Covid-19 ‘that could result in significant impacts to health and lives’.

They also state that not enough is known about the virus to guarantee herd immunity is possible.

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