US passes 60,000 coronavirus death toll Donald Trump predicted for entire outbreak
The newest forecast predicts over 74,000 deaths by the fall.
More than 60,000 Americans have died from Covid-19 deaths – exceeding the total number of deaths Donald Trump forecast for the entire outbreak.
At least 62,380 people have died in America from coronavirus as of Thursday. Over 2,300 of those fatalities occurred in the past 24 hours and, with thousands dying every day, the US appears as though it will suffer many more deaths than Trump expected.
Earlier in April, the president predicted 60,000 Americans would die during the entirety of the first wave of the outbreak, which is projected to rage on for months before slowing in August.
‘Now we’re going toward 50 — I’m hearing, or 60,000 people. One is too many. I always say it,’ Trump said, reportedly relying on a University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) model.
‘But we would have had millions of deaths instead of — it looks like we’ll be at about a 60,000 mark, which is 40,000 less than the lowest number thought of,’ Trump continued, although he has since bumped up his prediction to 70,000.
The White House and the IHME have since released a new model this week that projects over 74,000 deaths by August 4 – with an estimated range of up to 130,000 deaths. However, the death toll may be much higher than the model suggests because it cuts off before the fall, when the second wave of the virus is expected to arrive as temperatures drop again.
Researchers said that the newly-increased estimated death toll is due to ‘many states experiencing flatter and thus longer epidemic peaks,’ as well as data that indicates deaths ‘are not falling very quickly after the peak, leading to longer tails for many states’ epidemic curves.
‘In combination — less abrupt peaks and slower declines in daily COVID-19 deaths following the peak — many places in the US could have higher cumulative deaths from the novel coronavirus,’ the IHME said.
Researchers trying to predict how many Americans will ultimately die from the Covid-19 have had a hard time locking down a consistent number, especially as states across the country are set to begin loosening stay-at-home orders.
‘Our forecast now is for 74,000 deaths. That’s our best estimate. The range is pretty wide because there’s a lot of unknown factors there, but our best estimate is going up, and we see these protracted, long peaks in some states,’ Dr Chris Murray, Director of the IHME told CNN.
‘We’re also seeing signs in the mobility data that people are getting more active, and that’s also feeding into our assessment.’
Murray added that he thinks some states may be opening up too soon.
‘If you’re focused on trying to protect people’s health, then the answer is absolutely. It’s a safer strategy to get the number of infections in the community down to a really low level and then testing and contact tracing and isolation can work.’