Hotline mailbag: Assessing Pac-12 hot seats and the coaches who might simply walk away
Which football coaches are likely to be replaced before next season? We set the over/under at 3.5.
The Hotline mailbag is published each Friday. Send questions to pac12hotline@bayareanewsgroup.com or hit me on Twitter: @WilnerHotline. Due to volume — and in some cases, the need for research — not all questions will be answered the week of submission. Thanks for your understanding.
Some questions have been edited for clarity and brevity.
What’s the over/under on Pac-12 coaches getting fired this year? — @solarschmidt
Oh, goodness. I have no idea. And it’s a bit early to start speculating.
Is Jimmy Lake in over his head? His choice for offensive coordinator and inability to keep recruits are concerning … Should the Huskies move on and find a new coach? — @HuskyBlazerFan
What is going on at Cal? Complete breakdown this year with lots of returning players. Justin Wilcox not up to the job? — @stmike146
Who would be a top candidate for the UCLA job? — @Turrible_towel
Who do you think should be the next USC coach? — @jonathanrklein
What odds would you give that Nick Rolovich is the coach at Washington State on Jan. 1? — @MPBthe3
Whoa, maybe it isn’t too early to start speculating!
Let’s circle back to the original question: “What’s the over/under on Pac-12 coaches getting fired this year?”
Instead of focusing on dismissals, we’ll broaden the scope and examine how many teams could experience turnover for any reason prior to the 2022 season.
The Hotline’s official over/under is 3.5 for total Pac-12 changes (pink slips and voluntary departures) in the 2021-22 offseason.
We’re guaranteed to have one, USC, with an excellent chance that both Arizona State and Washington State experience turnover at the top, as well.
ASU, because Herm Edwards either will be forced out by NCAA infractions or because the 67-year-old will decide enough’s enough.
WSU, because Nick Rolovich either won’t comply with the state vaccine mandate — the situation could be resolved next week — or because the university refuses to employ an unvaccinated coach in a high-profile leadership position.
That would create three vacancies, but the over/under is 3.5 for a simple reason: The likelihood that a fourth coach, somewhere, is terminated or decides it’s time to move on.
And where might that fourth vacancy surface?
We see several possibilities, but Washington is not one of them. Jimmy Lake isn’t getting fired, even if UW’s season continues to unravel. Remember, he was immensely valued by the school for his work as an assistant/coordinator, he was the no-brainer choice to succeed Chris Petersen in Dec. ’19, and he won the North division in his rookie year.
Some rickety recruiting, a questionable choice for offensive coordinator and one substandard season aren’t reason enough to move on from Lake. Not even close. Barring an off-the-field transgression, Lake will be back next year and the year after that.
If you’re looking for potential dismissals, Westwood is the most likely location beyond Tempe and Pullman.
We believe Chip Kelly has the foundation in place for success, and for a return in 2022. But if the Bruins flounder, a change could follow. Kelly’s exorbitant buyout reportedly drops to zero in January, and UCLA athletic director Martin Jarmond is a recent arrival — he didn’t hire Kelly.
Again, we suspect UCLA’s early success will continue and that Kelly’s job security will be a non-issue by the end of the season. But for the moment, the possibility of a change cannot be completely ignored.
Far more likely, in our view, is the potential for a Pac-12 coach to leave voluntarily.
There are at least four candidates:
Justin Wilcox: Despite Cal’s downturn, Wilcox isn’t getting fired. He’s valued by the administration, understands what works in Berkeley (on the field and off) and receives the benefit of the doubt for the stalled momentum because of the insanity of the local COVID protocols. Also, the Bears don’t have the money for a change.
But might Wilcox be growing weary of Cal’s limitations? Might the COVID situation have made him realize there will always be something working against football success in Berkeley?
Granted, his job options could be limited if the Bears struggle. But Wilcox is well respected in the industry and has shown he’s willing to leave the West Coast. We won’t completely discount the potential for Wilcox to move on, although it seems highly unlikely.
Mario Cristobal: He has a great situation, plenty of contract security and an employer with the means of matching any offer. And to be clear: We don’t expect him to leave for USC.
But if the Ducks fall just short of expectations and a premier job opens in the southeastern quadrant — hello, LSU — it’s not unreasonable to think Cristobal would consider a jump. Also, his alma mater (Miami) might need a coach.
The most likely scenario, by far, has Cristobal remaining in Eugene. But until the offseason carousel stops spinning, it’s not a lock.
Jonathan Smith: Yes, Oregon State is his alma mater, gave him the chance of a lifetime in Nov. ’17 and would do everything possible to keep him.
But if the Beavers win the North — or win eight or nine games but not the division — Smith would be one of the hottest coaches on the market. And many places on that market will have deeper pockets, and more potential, than Oregon State.
Unlikely … extremely unlikely … but not quite impossible.
Kyle Whittingham: In our opinion, the window for Whittingham to leave Utah for another job (USC, for instance) closed a few years ago. The Hotline would be fairly stunned if he coached somewhere else next season.
But we would not be stunned if Whittingham, who’s about to turn 62, decides he doesn’t want to coach anywhere next season.
In other words: He steps away, either to recharge for a few years or permanently retire — a move comparable to what we saw from Chris Petersen two years ago.
He has been grinding for a long time, the tragedies (Ty Jordan and Aaron Lowe) are undoubtedly taking a toll, and the demands and distractions that accompany the job (NIL, transfer portal, etc.) are skyrocketing.
As with our assessments of Wilcox, Cristobal and Smith, we view the odds of Whittingham departing as somewhere south of slim and north of none.
But the potential for one of five openings to materialize (UCLA, Cal, Oregon, OSU and Utah) is enough to warrant setting the over/under at 3.5.
And if you’re wondering about Stanford’s David Shaw: The Hotline doesn’t believe the 49-year-old will coach his alma mater until retirement, but it’s not quite time for a move. He has never viewed the grass on the horizon as necessarily greener.
Given Oregon’s two most recent crippling season-ending injuries, did ASU’s odds to win the Pac-12 title just increase by 40%? — @JonInMich
I’m not sure of the percentage, but the outlook has brightened substantially for the Sun Devils after their sizzling second half at UCLA and the injuries in Eugene.
Because the conference once again lacks a dominant team, the situation is highly fluid. But thanks to their combination of a top-tier quarterback, an array of playmakers and a stout defense, the Sun Devils are as well positioned as anyone.
Also, Utah hasn’t looked sharp, USC is wobbly, and the Sun Devils have the head-to-head edge over UCLA. Win the division, and they are one game from the trophy.
This many games in, where would you rank Stanford’s Tanner McKee in the Pac-12 quarterback pecking order? — @asowl21
Based on performance to date, McKee should be slotted in the top third, for sure, along with USC’s Kedon Slovis and ASU’s Jayden Daniels.
It’s not unreasonable to question Stanford’s decision to start Jack West in the opener and wonder if the Kansas State game might have turned out differently had McKee played start to finish.
Granted, this isn’t the most impressive collection of quarterbacks in conference history. Mediocre play is rampant. But McKee is clearly on the top shelf.
How long must I wait to watch the Pac-12 Network on DirecTV? I’m getting old! — @doo4usc
To the best of my knowledge, there’s nothing new on that front. You need to wait a few years, at least.
The distribution contracts for the Pac-12 Networks expire at the same time (the spring of 2024) as the conference’s Tier 1 agreements with ESPN and Fox. They are coterminous.
Sometime in the next 12-18 months, commissioner George Kliavkoff will begin negotiating new media rights deals for every shred of Pac-12 content — football, basketball, the Olympic sports, all of it.
At that point, DirecTV might emerge as an option for the 2024-25 sports cycle.
Then again, the shift to streaming makes satellite distribution increasingly less significant, and we’re skeptical that any football and men’s basketball inventory will air on the Pac-12 Networks.
Looking at where things stand, what’s your guess on how many Pac-12 teams become bowl eligible? — @GTD71639070
We published bowl projections earlier this week — and do so each Tuesday — but here’s a quick summary of the landscape based on current performance and upcoming schedules:
— Well positioned: Arizona State, Oregon, Oregon State and UCLA
— Solid shape: Stanford, USC and Utah
— Narrow path: Cal, Washington and Washington State
— No chance: Arizona and Colorado
Will San Diego State dominate the Pac-12 in every sport this year (like men’s soccer)? — @timmy2legs
I must claim ignorance when it comes to the Olympic sports, but the Aztecs are 2-0 in football (Utah and Arizona) and have at least one duel with the Pac-12 in men’s basketball (ASU) and possibly a second (USC).
It’s probably best for the Pac-12 that there aren’t more games scheduled against SDSU on the court.
Will the Pac-12 plan to have an official awards ceremony if/when Brigham Young wins the championship? — @BYUalumni8
The Cougars are 3-0 against the Pac-12 (Utah, ASU and Arizona) and have two games left: They visit Washington State in a few weeks and USC at the end of the season.
If the Cougars complete the sweep, we will have no problem whatsoever declaring them the unofficial conference champions.
It would be a complete, utter and colossal embarrassment for the Pac-12.
(See what I did there?)
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