Explaining why top international prospect Nikola Topic may fall in the 2024 NBA Draft

What is going on with Nikola Topic right now?

Every year, there are players expected to hear his name called early in the draft but who fall lower than initially anticipated. One of the players in the 2024 NBA Draft who could deal with such a slide is Nikola Topic.

While he was projected the No. 2 overall pick in the 2024 NBA Draft here on For The Win’s first consensus mock draft as recently as last month, quite a lot has changed since then. Now, the projections are far lower.

Topic, a guard measured at nearly 6-foot-6 in socks at the 2024 NBA Draft Combine in Italy, won FIBA U18 European Championship MVP in 2023. He was also awarded ABA League Top Prospect in 2024 and named All-ABA League Team.

He averaged 18.6 points, 3.7 rebounds, and 6.9 assists per game while playing for KK Mega Bemax. Topic was later loaned to KK Crvena zvezda in Serbia but suffered a knee injury in January. After returning to the court, he eventually suffered a partially torn ACL.

Is that why many feel that his draft stock is sliding, or is there more? Here are some of the latest reports.

Redshirt season

Jonathan Givony (via ESPN): “A team picking him will likely need to be comfortable with the idea of a redshirt season next year with long-term thinking in mind, similar to how Chet Holmgren, Joel Embiid, Michael Porter Jr. and Blake Griffin started their NBA careers.”

Knee injury and shooting

Western Conference Executive, via David Aldridge (via The Athletic): “If he starts dropping, it’s not because of his size, his age, and his skill; it’s going to be because of something else, and that’s going to be the knee. But it doesn’t seem like it’s going to be a wildfire, where this is legitimately a concern. Right now, when we break him down, how can we add a non-shooter to what we have? You put so much pressure on your player development area — guys, we have to make him to be a respectable shooter. And what that means is, 38 percent, 39 percent from 3. And he’s never done that in his career. But, you guys have to make him that. You can love his size and you love his passing ability and you can love his basketball IQ, but at the end of the day, in the league, you have to be able to make a shot.”

Small sample size

Sam Vecenie (via The Athletic): “Topic has a lot of upside, especially if you really believe in the work he did on the ball in his 13 games to start the year for Mega. But using a top-five pick on a 13-game sample, especially when his games with Red Star were much more pedestrian, is a huge bet for any lead decision-maker in a front office. That person would need to trust that what they saw was reality and not the construct of a Mega offense that also allowed Nikola Djurišić to get loose as a scorer following Topić’s transfer back to Red Star. If his ability to separate against NBA-level athletes doesn’t come through and his jumper off the catch doesn’t get there, what is he then? Is he even a starter? As an enormous ballhandler with serious touch and incredible vision as a passer, Topić is clearly an NBA player, even if it doesn’t all translate. But his floor is lower than all the other top guys in this class because his sample of strong play is so small — even if that resume includes him winning MVP of the Under18 European championships last summer.”

With great size at his position and as one of the better floor generals in the class, there is still plenty of value for Topic no matter where he is selected.