NFL straight-up picks, Week 18: Unpacking a weekend with playoff stakes and meaningless games

Picking winners was hard enough when the games mattered. But with stars sitting out? Oof.

Picking this year’s college bowl game winners was a special challenge. Opt-outs and transfer portal declarations left some rosters decimated and others relatively intact. Depth chart breakdowns and “who’s more excited to be there?” analysis were subject to the turnover of players looking out for themselves and their futures (rightfully so, to be clear) just as much as turnovers on the field itself.

That made it tricky to figure out who’d stand up across the slate of non-College Football Playoff games. And now we get a similar conundrum in Week 18 of the 2023 NFL season. The Baltimore Ravens and San Francisco 49ers have each locked up home field advantage throughout the postseason and their conference’s respective first round byes. The Kansas City Chiefs and Detroit Lions have each locked down division crowns and Wild Card hosting duties. A dozen teams have seen their Super Bowl hopes officially extinguished and Saturday/Sunday’s games are the only things standing between them and vacation time.

We already know stars like Patrick Mahomes and Christian McCaffrey won’t play. Other teams locked into playoff spots will take a similar tack when it comes to keeping key players healthy for more meaningful games. But we’re not sure exactly who that’ll be — and who’ll only play a couple series, who’ll sit out the second half, etc. When you’re making your full-week predictions on Wednesday, it makes things pretty difficult.

Welp, here are our best guesses. Anything with a ? suggests I struggled with the pick and might have overthought it. And check back closer to gameday for any changes that may have floated to the surface as news about teams resting players trickles in.

And here are those picks in an easier to digest chart.