NFL prop bets, Week 3: Betting up rookie overs and the Bijan Robinson hype train

It's time to get those Bijan Robinson and Zay Flowers over bets in while they're still reasonable.

Well, last week was some hot garbage.

After a solid start, Week 2’s plays crumbled into dust. The 49ers let up with a two-possession lead just as Brock Purdy approached his yardage total. Travis Etienne was part of a Jacksonville Jaguar offense that did nothing against the Kansas City Chiefs. Jared Goff and Baker Mayfield combined to throw for a million yards. There was even a Nick Chubb prop in there which, oh no.

The end result was a losing week and a .500 record to start the season. That’s the worst place to be when you’re writing about bets; as reliable as a coin toss and not even worth fading. Gross.

Well, it appears my strategy of betting passing yardage unders has faded quickly now that the league’s quarterbacks (mostly) no longer suck. And since I can’t currently find an inflated number for Mayfield after last week’s explosion, let’s pretend I learned from that mistake and have returned to the straight and narrow path of profitable prop betting.

Jimmy Garoppolo UNDER 238.5 passing yards. Crap dang it, I guess I’m doing one passing yardage under. Garoppolo couldn’t even sniff his 228.5 total last week while trailing massively against the Bills. Now he gets the Steelers, who have a shaky secondary but will also collapse his pocket around him every other dropback. Thus, we get a suspiciously high total for a guy averaging 192.5 passing yards per game. Nope, can’t ignore that.

James Cook OVER 52.5 rushing yards. Cook’s snap share has remained stable but his handoff count rose last week in a win over the Raiders, leading to 100-plus yards. Even if he doesn’t wind up in a similar, grind-out-the-clock situation against a feisty Commanders team, he’s still looking at something between 12-15 carries against a rush defense that ranks 24th in yards allowed per handoff (4.5).

Bijan Robinson OVER 69.5 rushing yards. Did you see what he did to the Packers? Granted, that was a Green Bay team that’s been perpetually stupid against the run, but Robinson is special. We won’t be getting totals this low for long. Pair this up with OVER 23.5 receiving yards, a number he’s hit in both his games as a pro so far.

Roschon Johnson OVER 20.5 rushing yards. There are like three things going right for the Bears this season and one is Johnson, who runs like all the football study tape he’s ever watched were secretly 1980s demolition derbies. Somehow this has resulted in only nine carries on the season because, again, Bears.

Zay Flowers OVER 48.5 receiving yards. Flowers has 15 targets in two games and had 10 in a lopsided opener against the Texans. Now he faces the Colts, who’ve allowed a 103.8 passer rating in two games.

George Pickens OVER 54.5 receiving yards. No one else appears capable of racking up chunk yardage in the Steeler offense and Pickens has 17 targets over two games. Now he gets the Raiders’ deficient secondary, which currently ranks 31st in opposing QB efficiency to start the season.

Najee Harris UNDER 10.5 receiving yards. He’s clearly not the team’s receiving back; if Kenny Pickett has his heart set on throwing to someone out of the backfield, it’s gonna be Jaylen Warren.

Puka Nacua longest reception UNDER 22.5 yards. I broke down Nacua’s 20 targets in Week 2 earlier in the Overreaction Index. He’s at his best when defenses sit back and let him feast close to the line of scrimmage. He’s capable of getting open on drag, out and sit-down routes, and maybe this is the week he blows up press coverage with a deep shot. Still, against the 49ers he only had one route that went more than 15 yards downfield.

Last week: 4-5 (.571)
Season to date: 8-8 (.500)