Paolo Banchero over Jabari Smith should not have been as surprising as it was in the 2022 NBA Draft

27.06.2022 22:50

Mock drafts suffer from groupthink.

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Now that the 2022 NBA Draft is in the rearview mirror, it’s time for some reflections. First and foremost, it was an awesome night where we saw so many hoop dreams come true.

I also think we saw a lot of teams get better and take steps in the right direction, which is awesome. We learned a lot about team draft philosophy and we saw some well-dressed prospects rocking excellent suits. It was all very exciting.

The biggest surprise of the night was that Duke’s Paolo Banchero, not Auburn’s Jabari Smith, was selected as the first overall pick to the Magic. But the shock was not because Smith was better than Banchero as a prospect.

It’s because all of the mainstream mock drafts had Smith as the projected No. 1 overall pick. Listen to The Athletic’s Sam Vecenie describe the situation:

“The fact that me, Jeremy Woo, Jon Givony, Jon Wasserman, XYZ … we basically all had it as Jabari going No. 1 … I felt pretty bad about that. I didn’t love the fact that we all had that … The fact that all of it was consensus 1-2-3, Jabari Smith-Chet Holmgren-Paolo Banchero in all of the mock drafts that you saw … I felt like consumers were not getting a real picture of how close this was to teams that actually had to go through the process themselves.”

All of the experts had Smith predicted to Orlando, so it makes sense that fans were so surprised. However, since Banchero’s blend of size and on-ball skill makes him a perfect fit for the modern NBA, it shouldn’t have left our jaws too close to the floor.

I’m very proud of the fact that For The Win’s mock draft was perhaps the only major mock that did not have Smith hearing his name as the first overall pick.

My thinking at the time was simple. Even though Smith was more likely to go first, I was never convinced that he was the unanimous choice as the best overall prospect in this class. It always felt like he was in the same exact tier as Banchero and even Gonzaga’s Chet Holmgren, also selected above him.

All three of the teams who were on the clock at the top of the draft were able to land an outstanding prospect. But when it comes to predictions, so long as you have evidence to back your claim, draft experts ought to be willing to go against the grain so as to not create an echo chamber.

The Tip-Off

(AP Photo/John Minchillo)

Speaking of the NBA Draft, Pacers rookie Bennedict Mathurin recently had some comments that caught the attention of our own Mike Sykes.

Mathurin doesn’t think anybody, including LeBron James, is better than him.

“Ah, to be young. The irrational confidence that comes when you don’t really know anything about anything is absolute bliss. I wish I could get it back.

And, look. I’m not old — yerboi is only 29 years old. But at 19? If I knew what I knew now? I’d probably have viewed the world a lot different back then. But I also wouldn’t be where I am now, so it all worked out.

I say all that to say Benedict Mathurin has an extreme case of irrational confidence and, honestly, you’ve got to respect it.

This dude was just picked 6th overall in the NBA draft and had an absolutely wild path in getting there. He should be confident. He is good. He’s officially one of the best 400 or so basketball players in the world.

But should he be confident enough to call out LeBron James who might be one of the best basketball players ever? Ehhhh, probably not.”

Thank you for telling it like it is, Sykes. We know that Mathurin, bless his heart, needed to hear it.