The Lions provide great value as road underdogs against Falcons (if healthy)

After upsetting the Cardinals, things are looking up in Detroit.

On the surface, it’s easy to see why the Detroit Lions are currently 5.5-point underdogs for Sunday’s game against the Atlanta Falcons:

Their two wins are tied for the fewest of any team in the league. They’re last in the NFC at 2-11-1, five spots behind the Falcons who have four more wins. They’re on the road facing a team that technically still has a shot at the playoffs led by former MVP quarterback Matt Ryan. 

However, a deeper look at these teams shows there’s great value in taking the Lions to cover at -108 odds on Tipico Sportsbook, if not picking them to win outright at +200 on the moneyline.

For starters, the Lions are 9-5 against the spread this season, according to TeamRankings.com, the third-best record in the NFL behind the Green Bay Packers and Dallas Cowboys, who are both 11-3 ATS. This was made possible by the Lions’ 0-8 start to the season, which prompted questions as to whether they would ever win a game. Increasingly more after each loss, the Lions were expected to lose by large margins, only to play those games tight—often against teams better than the Falcons.

Four of Detroit’s 11 losses have come against teams currently .500 or better, and its two wins and tie are all against teams at least .500, too. Their last game, an 18-point win over the 10-4 Arizona Cardinals was the most surprising of them all. It’s the highlight of a six week stretch where the Lions have been their most competitive, going 2-3-1 with the first two losses coming by a combined five points.

So while the Lions have the second-lowest winning percentage in the NFL, they have a better scoring differential (-123) than four other teams, including the Falcons (-126).

Atlanta has six wins on the season, taking advantage of matchups against other bad teams, but the Falcons aren’t much different statistically from the Lions. Detroit is actually better in a lot of areas, including running the ball. The Lions average nearly a yard more per carry and over 20 yards more per game.

Offense	PPG (rank)	Pass TD	Rush TD
Lions	17.4 (28th)	17	9
Falcons	18.4 (26th)	18	8

 

Defense	Opp. PPG	Sacks	TO margin
Lions	26.1 (26th)	22 (31st)	-4
Falcons	27.4 (31st)	16 (32nd)	-5

Even Jared Goff’s numbers are extremely similar to those of Matt Ryan. He’s coming off his best game of the season in the win over the Cardinals, matching a season-high three touchdowns while completing a season-high 81 percent of his passes against a defense much better than the Falcons’. If he clears COVID-19 protocols after landing on the reserve list Monday, Detroit has a great chance to win.

The only other cause for pause in picking Detroit to cover is how the team has performed on the road, going 0-6-1 away from home. That record is much better against the spread, however, with the Lions going 4-3 on the road. The Falcons are winless against the spread at home, going 0-5. And they’re just 1-5 overall in Atlanta, so something has to give. If the Lions have their full cast of players, the better bet is that things break their way.

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