Aaron Rodgers overtakes Tom Brady as favorite to win MVP

20.12.2021 23:47

Rodgers' MVP stock is up.

Aaron Rodgers has overtaken Tom Brady as the betting favorite to win the NFL’s Most Valuable Player award.

After a week in which Rodgers continued his hot play, while Brady was shut out for the first time in 15 years, Rodgers’ odds to win MVP jumped to +130 on Tipico Sportsbook. Brady has the second shortest odds at +155, down from +140 a week ago. The two are followed by Patrick Mahomes and Jonathan Taylor at +1000 apiece with Matthew Stafford at +1300.

Brady’s MVP odds took a hit with Sunday night’s 9-0 loss to the New Orleans Saints, easily his worst game of the season. He completed just 54 percent of his 48 pass attempts, averaging 4.5 yards per attempt, and threw his 11th interception of the season. He also lost a fumble in the game.

Rodgers, on the other hand, completed over 70 percent of his passes for a second straight game Sunday in a win over the Baltimore Ravens. His odds have jumped up from +600 two weeks ago. Rodgers has 13 touchdowns and zero interceptions in his last four games, with the Packers going 3-1 in that stretch and leapfrogging the Arizona Cardinals for best record in the NFC.

The MVP race appears to be down to two players, though Taylor continues to make a solid case at running back. He’s the NFL’s rushing leader with 1,518 yards – over 400 more than the next player – and 17 touchdowns. He also has over 300 yards and two touchdowns receiving. He’s on pace for over 2,200 yards of total offense with an outside chance of 2,000 rushing yards.

However, the last running back to win MVP was Adrian Peterson in 2012. The award often goes to a quarterback and no one is hotter at the position right now than Rodgers. Here’s how his numbers compare to Brady, Mahomes and Stafford.

	Yds	TD	Int	%	YPA	Rate	W-L	Odds
Aaron Rodgers	3,487	30	4	67.8	7.9	110.4	11-3	+130
Tom Brady	4,348	36	11	67.1	7.2	100.4	10-4	+155
Patrick Mahomes	4,052	30	13	65.6	7.4	95.8	10-4	+1000
Matthew Stafford	3,898	33	9	67.3	8.3	108.4	9-4	+1300

Brady has the edge in raw totals while Rodgers leads in efficiency. The Green Bay Packers and Tampa Bay Buccaneers have the two easiest strength of schedules remaining in the NFL, so if it comes down to the two quarterbacks, it’s a race likely to go down to the final week of the season.

Both Brady and Rodgers have three career MVPs to their name, tied with three others for second-most in league history. A fourth would make either just the second player ever to win as many, joining Peyton Manning who won the award five times.

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