The Tennessee Titans (probably) cannot keep this up
The Titans' 8-2 record is barely sustainable without Derrick Henry.
Derrick Henry is on injured reserve. Ryan Tannehill is having his worst season since leaving Miami. Julio Jones is injured and has barely made an impact when healthy. A defense with zero 2020 Pro Bowlers ranks 21st in yards allowed.
So how are the Tennessee Titans 8-2 and in the catbird seat in the AFC?
Tennessee, the team responsible for the New York Jets’ first win of the season, haven’t lost since getting embarrassed by Zach Wilson in Week 4. They’ve gone from 2-2 and a -16 point scoring differential to one of the NFL’s best records. In that stretch, they’ve earned four wins over teams who, if the season ended today, would be in the playoffs.
There’s no one explanation for the Titans’ rise aside from a handful of players either starting to meet their potential or punching above their weight class. Let’s break down how Tennessee has managed to climb to the top of the AFC despite a handful of legitimate reasons why it shouldn’t have — and whether or not it can keep this up.
Ryan Tannehill has done just enough to win
The Titans’ under Mike Vrabel have fielded a throwback, run-first offense because Derrick Henry demanded it. Fielding a 2,000-yard rusher meant 30+ handoffs per game, stacked boxes, and room to throw downfield.
This was the backdrop for Tannehill’s revival. He led the league in passer rating in 2019 and led it in both fourth quarter comebacks and game winning drives in 2020.
He’s fallen way off that pace in 2021. Tannehill’s greatest asset as a Titan has been his low-turnover efficiency, but that’s escaped him in 2021. His 90.7 rating ranks 22nd among starting quarterbacks, a fraction of a point ahead of Ben Roethlisberger. His 12 touchdown passes in 10 games are tied for 19th-best. He’s already thrown more interceptions this fall than any other season in Nashville.
What’s the difference? A once-useful deep game has withered. Tannehill ranked among the league’s top three quarterbacks in average pass distance in 2019 at 9.5 yards, but his typical throw goes just 7.5 yards — 21st-best in the league. His average completion is a mere 5.7 yards downfield, down from 7.4 his first two seasons as a Titan. That mark ranks just behind Trevor Lawrence. He completed 44.6 percent of his deep balls in 2019, but only 18 of 47 such throws (38.3 percent) this season.
That includes an 0-3 mark on passes 20+ yards downfield his last three games. Expand that scope to 15+ yards and he’s just three for eight with a touchdown and an interception. A.J. Brown, without much help from the receiving corps around him, has just six catches for on 15 targets for 58 yards his last two Sundays.
These are all depressing numbers, but Tennessee keeps winning. It hasn’t been because of third down efficiency; he’s gained only 76 yards on 19 attempts while converting only seven of 24 first downs (29.2 percent, which would be the worst mark in the NFL over a full season). It’s because Tannehill has taken full advantage of any and all scoring opportunities afforded him.
The Titans have led eight drives inside their opponents’ 30-yard line the last two weeks. They scored on all of them, netting 44 total points (five touchdowns, three field goals). Tannehill has completed 10 of his 15 passes for 56 yards and two touchdowns — a 112.8 passer rating in these situations compared to an 87.6 rating outside the 30. More importantly, he’s added two touchdowns on the ground and converted all three of his team’s fourth down attempts, turning three-point drives into seven-pointers.
That fake is Oscarworthy! @ryantannehill1 in Tinseltown.
: Watch #TENvsLAR on @SNFonNBC pic.twitter.com/UJzZqCDnND
— Tennessee Titans (@Titans) November 8, 2021
Chalk it up to veteran wherewithal or just Mike Vrabel’s ability to manage risk, but Tennessee’s offense has come alive in big moments even without Henry or, after Week 9, Jones to help out. Statistically, this shouldn’t happen.
After averaging 377 yards per game to start the season, The Titans have averaged only 229 in two weeks without their star tailback. Despite nearly 150 fewer yards each week, their scoring average has only dropped from 28.4 points per game to 25.5. With Henry, Tennessee scored a point for roughly every 13.3 yards of offense. Without him, it’s scoring a point for every nine yards gained. The 2020 Packers, for comparison, led the league in scoring and averaged a point per 12.2 yards that fall.
That’s bound to lead to regression. Fortunately, the Titans have another weapon to fight that.
The Titans’ defense is no longer a liability
Tennessee went 11-5 last season despite one of the league’s least efficient defenses; it ranked 28th in yards allowed, 29th in defensive DVOA, per Football Outsiders, and dead last when it came to allowing third down conversions.
This year the Titans … are kinda better!
Tennessee ranks 10th in DVOA (up from 20th headed into Week 9) and 21st in yards allowed. What’s been driving that change?
After allowing opponents to convert 51.4 percent of their third downs in 2020, the Titans have that number down to 33.3 percent in wins over the Rams and Saints. However, that may not be sustainable. Most low conversion rates are tied to a team’s lack of success on early downs and the third-and-longs that follow. In the last two weeks, LA and New Orleans have averaged 4.6 yards per play on first down (counting penalty yardage), setting up manageable situations Tennessee has been both good and a little bit lucky to escape.
But Tennessee has the kind of chaos agents capable of erasing long drives and keeping it in front. Bud Dupree has had a minimal impact after signing an $82.5 million contract last offseason and it hasn’t mattered because Jeffery Simmons and Harold Landry — 17.5 sacks and 32 quarterback hits between them — are possibly the most destructive front line/second level pass rushing combination in the world. Denico Autry, working opposite Simmons in the trenches, already has a career-best 14 QB hits. By their powers combined, the Titans have a bottom 10 blitz rate and a top 10 pressure rate.
Defensive coordinator Shane Bowen knows how to unleash this in big moments. He wants nothing more than to force you into the shadow of your own end zone and then fire Roman candles at you until you panic from sheer overwhelming stimuli. Only, that doesn’t mean he needs to send any more than four guys to get there:
THE BOYS!
— Tennessee Titans (@Titans) November 8, 2021
In the two-plus games since Henry was hurt, opponents have run five plays from inside their own 10-yard line. Bowen has either shown blitz before backing off or actually blitzed, leading to panicked decisions on passing downs. Those plays gained a net total of six yards and resulted in two interceptions that led to 14 Titans points.
Like the team’s third down success, that’s great, but not sustainable. The Titans’ special teams are mostly unremarkable, so these opportunities won’t be nearly as fruitful in the future — New Orleans only ran six plays inside its own 20-yard line in Week 10.
Fortunately there’s a safety net behind that pass rush. Tennessee’s aerial defense has been solid despite losing rookie first round pick Caleb Farley to injury and getting mostly below-average play (a 109.5 passer rating allowed) from top free agent Janoris Jenkins.
The two difference-making factors there have been a reliable veteran and a rising young star. Former Pro Bowler Kevin Byard is in the midst of possibly the best season of a six-year career. He’s got five interceptions in only 32 targets and is allowing a stingy 46.5 rating in coverage.
His over-the-top help has allowed 2020 second-rounder Kristian Fulton to flourish. He’s got eight passes defensed across 32 targets and has allowed just a 43.8 percent completion rate in coverage. When he’s been hurt, opponents have been able to pick apart replacement Elijah Molden while completing nearly 70 percent of their passes.
There are still problems in Nashville — the team’s rush defense allows 4.4 yards per carry and ranks 24th in rushing DVOA — but it’s fair to say a galaxy of emerging young stars and veterans still capable of shining have been instrumental to the Titans’ 8-2 start. The remainder of the season will force them to prove they can burn throughout a 17-game campaign without running out of fuel.
Can the Titans keep doing this?
That’s the question that will define how the AFC shakes out. The conference right now is a mess. The only teams who’ve won their last two games are the Titans, Chiefs, Patriots, Colts, and Dolphins. 12 teams are .500 or better. That 8-2 record gives Tennessee a cushion — and a three-game lead over Indianapolis in the South — but any stumble leaves room for Buffalo, Kansas City, Baltimore, and yeah maybe even New England to stir up the waters on their path to the Super Bowl.
The Titans, a club that once lost to the Jets, are not the team their record suggests. They’ve been out-gained by more than 100 yards in each of their two games without Henry in the lineup. Their scoring has weighed heavily on a turnover-creating defense. Their pythagorean record, which measures the expected outcome of games based on a team’s stats, only pegs Tennessee as a 6-4 squad.
But that’s fine! That’s enough to win its division and bide time until Henry can return from his foot injury. Unless Tannehill keeps making the most of his red zone opportunities and a suddenly-capable defense continues to wreck shop up front and in at least parts of the secondary, it won’t be enough to hold on to the AFC’s top seed.
Opponents who protect the ball and prevent moderate gains on first and second down will force the Titans to stare down their biggest weakness. Tennessee keeps winning because it has seized opportunities like a championship team would. Shut off that tap and they struggle thanks to a dearth of playmakers outside of Brown, who can be moderately contained in double coverage without the threat of a game-breaking run up the gut.
The Rams and Saints couldn’t stop that flow. The back end of the schedule features games against the Texans (twice), Jaguars, and Dolphins. This team is destined for at least 12 wins, but regression could hit them at the worst possible time if Henry and Jones can’t return to full strength and lead to another disappointing postseason exit.