Josh Allen's MVP odds are a poor value

Josh Allen is a great MVP candidate and a terrible betting value.

Josh Allen is coming off a day where he led the Buffalo Bills to zero touchdowns. He was responsible for minus-12 expected points added. He turned the ball over three times in a loss.

To the Jacksonville Jaguars.

Despite Allen’s third underwhelming performance in an eight-game stretch, the Bills are the betting co-favorites to win Super Bowl 56 at the league’s halfway mark. They’re tied with the reigning champion Tampa Bay Buccaneers at +550, per Tipico. Allen, at +350, is the clubhouse favorite to take home the league’s regular season Most Valuable Player award:

MVP odds after Week 9:

Josh Allen +350

Tom Brady +380

Kyler Murray +500

Matthew Stafford +600

Dak Prescott +750

Aaron Rodgers +1000

Lamar Jackson +1200

Justin Herbert +1500

Allen is one of the league’s best quarterbacks, but to paint him as a heavy favorite at this point feels more like a “this is what Bills Mafia has been betting” than any actual statement about who will win the award come February. A season of up-and-down performances has left the MVP race wide open.

And that makes Josh Allen +350 a very tough value for NFL prognosticators. At his best, he’s one of the most unstoppable forces in the game, capable of ruining defenses with high-arcing rainbows downfield or by outrunning pressure and sprinting for first downs. At his worst, he remains vulnerable to return to the freewheeling, turnover-heavy days of his past:

Josh Allen interception. Josh Allen-ception? #BUFvsJAX | #DUUUVAL pic.twitter.com/Eb8OOEXCHA

— Jacksonville Jaguars (@Jaguars) November 7, 2021

Let’s break down why Allen could be a solid MVP candidate, but a tough value at +350.

The case for MVP Josh Allen

The Bills are 5-3, but it’s a very different 5-3 than other cases across the league. Buffalo’s +117 point differential is second-best in the league and 52 more than the third-place Los Angeles Rams. From a strictly scoring output, Allen’s team looks more like an 8-1 team than one only a half game ahead of Mac Jones and the New England Patriots.

Even after Week 9’s debacle in Jacksonville, the Bills have ended a league-best 48.9 percent of their offensive drives with points. This isn’t because of the dynamic running game of Zach Moss and Devin Singletary; it’s because an opportunistic defense forces a ton of turnovers and Allen is a master when it comes to converting these newfound possessions into points. He’s had 13 opportunities to follow up turnovers with drives that weren’t limited by time running out either in the second or fourth quarter. He delivered points on nine of those.

After losing to the Steelers in Week 1, Allen saved his biggest performances for prospective playoff opponents, heaping 374 total yards and four touchdowns on the Chiefs in Arrowhead Stadium and throwing for 353 yards and a touchdown while falling one misplaced cleat shy of a possible comeback win at the Titans.

He’s also on pace for a career best 678 rushing yards. When Allen is at his best, few other players in the league can match his impact.

The case against MVP Josh Allen

Allen has either been very good or mostly bad in his starts this season. He had five games in which he’s recorded a passer rating above 100 and three in which he hasn’t cracked 80. He’s had an expected points-added total of at least 11 points in five games and been mired at minus-5 points or lower twice.

In the process, his team has just one win over another team in the playoff hunt: the 5-4 Kansas City Chiefs, who’ve only managed to avoid spiraling out thanks to some recent scheduling luck. Allen’s other victories this season include beating the Houston Texans (1-8), Washington Football Team (2-6), and Miami Dolphins twice (2-7). It’s easy to rack up points when you’re playing the Washington Generals most weeks.

Allen’s counting stats don’t look like MVP numbers, either. He ranks 15th in the league in passer rating (97.2), 28 points behind Russell Wilson. He’s 12th in QBR, eighth in passing yards per game, 12th in touchdown rate, and 22nd in yards per attempt. Passing numbers aren’t everything, especially considering the value Allen adds on the ground, but here’s a quick blind resume test:

Quarterback 1 is Teddy Bridgewater. Quarterback 2 is Carson Wentz. Not great!

Allen kept his betting favorite throne in Week 9 because everyone behind him stunk, too. Tom Brady had a bye week. Kyler Murray was injured. Matthew Stafford and Dak Prescott imploded in double-digit losses as home favorites. Aaron Rodgers galaxy-brained his way out of the Packers lineup. Only Lamar Jackson and Justin Herbert had good games in Week 9, and even that only pushed them to the middle ground when it comes to award consideration.

If Allen can’t get back to averaging 350+ total yards and three touchdowns per game, he’s going to find himself passed on the MVP odds leaderboard. That’s the move that’ll create some value for anyone out there who believes he’s destined to win the league’s top honor this winter.

This is not a swipe at Allen’s talent though many Bills fans, conditioned from decades of mostly-deserved disrespect, may see it that way. Allen is a perfectly viable MVP candidate whose value to his team is immense. There is a very clear defining line between what Buffalo was before Allen arrived and what it is now.

But the idea Allen has separated himself from the pack where all the top quarterbacks have been similarly prone to swings between great games and clunkers doesn’t check out. Allen is a great MVP bet … at somewhere around +600. But +350 is entirely too steep for a player whose resume was built primarily over wins against bad teams — and hasn’t yet been undone by an unthinkable loss against what may be the worst of them.