College Football Playoff watch: Cincinnati still looking good, but Ohio State, Michigan are creeping up

Can Cincinnati hang on among the top-4 teams with the best College Football Playoff chances?

We’re less than a week out from the first College Football Playoff rankings of 2021, when we’ll finally get an idea of how the playoff committee views this wild, weird and chaotic season. Of course, nothing is official until the four playoff teams are announced on December 5, but that never stops us and college football fans from trying to project who will be in and who will get a New Year’s Six bowl consolation prize.

After the Week 8 games, Alabama’s playoff chances, according to ESPN’s Football Power Index, saw nearly a 10-point boost, Oklahoma’s got a small bump up, the Pac-12 remains nowhere to be found, Cincinnati’s chances dropped hard and Penn State basically disappeared. So going into Week 9, the top-4 teams with the best playoff chances remain the same, but their ranking order is jumbled.

Here’s a look at the top teams with the best chances to make the College Football Playoff going into Week 9, according to ESPN’s FPI as of Thursday.

1. Georgia Bulldogs (7-0)

• Playoff: 87.8 percent
• National championship game: 62.2 percent
• Win championship: 37.7 percent

2. Alabama Crimson Tide (7-1)

• Playoff: 69.2 percent
• National championship game: 48.3 percent
• Win championship: 28.4 percent

3. Oklahoma Sooners (8-0)

• Playoff: 51.3 percent
• National championship game: 18.9 percent
• Win championship: 6.1 percent

4. Cincinnati Bearcats (7-0)

• Playoff: 45.6 percent
• National championship game: 12.4 percent
• Win championship: 3.9 percent

Last week, Georgia’s playoff chances were at 90.4 percent, Oklahoma’s were 62.5 percent, Cincinnati’s were at 62.1 percent and Alabama’s were 60.1 percent. All were still among the top-4 teams, but they’re reordered this week.

Related: Predicting which of college football’s remaining 9 undefeated teams will lose in Week 9

And the most notably thing about how everyone’s playoff chances have changed in the last week involves Cincinnati and the first two teams outside of the top four: Ohio State and Michigan. Last week, Ohio State’s playoff chances were at 36.5 percent, while Michigan’s were at 37.8 percent. But now, Cincinnati’s chances fell 16.5 percent after a scare versus Navy last weekend, and the Buckeyes and Wolverines are creeping up on the Bearcats’ No. 4 spot.

Cincinnati’s, Ohio State’s and Michigan’s playoff chances are now separated by just 1.2 percentage points, with the Buckeyes’ at 44.8 percent and the Wolverines at 44.4 percent. That means even the slightest slip-up from the Bearcats or a surge from one of the Big Ten teams could easily change up who’s among the top-4 teams with the best shot and threaten the possibility of a Group of 5 team in the playoff.

Here’s a look at the remaining top-10 teams with the best chances to make the College Football Playoff, per ESPN’s FPI.

5. Ohio State Buckeyes (6-1)

• Playoff: 44.8 percent
• National championship game: 25.0 percent
• Win championship: 12.9 percent

6. Michigan Wolverines (7-0)

• Playoff: 44.4 percent
• National championship game: 17.6 percent
• Win championship: 6.3 percent

7. Pitt Panthers (6-1)

• Playoff: 22.3 percent
• National championship game: 7.6 percent
• Win championship: 2.6 percent

8. Michigan State Spartans (7-0)

• Playoff: 9.8 percent
• National championship game: 2.3 percent
• Win championship: 0.6 percent

9. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (6-1)

• Playoff: 8.0 percent
• National championship game: 1.8 percent
• Win championship: 0.5 percent

10. Ole Miss Rebels (6-1)

• Playoff: 6.5 percent
• National championship game: 1.8 percent
• Win championship: 0.5 percent

Among the notable playoff-hopeful teams that used to be among the top 10 include: Oregon (3.5 percent chance to make the playoff), Iowa (1.5 percent), Oklahoma State (1.0 percent) and Penn State (0.2 percent).