Sean McDermott absolutely made the right call on the failed Josh Allen 4th down run

You have to go for it.

You play to win the game, right Herm Edwards?

And that was the case on Monday night: With 22 seconds left and the Buffalo Bills down 34-31 to the Tennessee Titans, Sean McDermott’s team needed just one yard for a first down at the Titans’ two-yard line. They’d get a new set of downs and a chance to score a touchdown to win.

OR! McDermott could have trotted out the kicking team for a chip shot for the tie on the road.

But he chose to run one of the best rushing QBs in the game on a sneak that was improbably stopped by Jeffrey Simmons. Game over, Bills lost.

THE TITANS STOP JOSH ALLEN ON 4TH DOWN AT THE GOAL LINE

(via @NFL)pic.twitter.com/XHMTWxqyXz

— ESPN (@espn) October 19, 2021

Absolutely incredible stop by Jeffrey Simmons. What a beast. Phenomenal pad level and strength to bully his way past the blocker and to stop Allen.

— Ian Wharton (@NFLFilmStudy) October 19, 2021

Here’s the thing: If you’re a team with Allen, that’s the right call every time. And if you’re a team that’s among the best in the NFL, you do it and know that you’re almost certainly going to get the first down and at least have a great shot at the touchdown.

Heck, even advance stats tell us that’s the case to go for it!

The Bills decision to go for it on 4th & inches from the Titans 3 (trailing 34-31) was unequivocally the optimal call according to the NGS Decision Guide.

Conversion Probability: 75%
Win Probability: 63% if GO, 42% if FG
Recommendation: GO FOR IT (by 21.3%)#BUFvsTEN

— Next Gen Stats (@NextGenStats) October 19, 2021

McDermott explained his decision and said that it was partially based on his defense, which couldn’t stop Derrick Henry all night:

"We hadn't stopped them on defense for a number of drives there in the second half but felt like we could go and win the game right there."

The Titans scored on 6 straight drives going back to the second half so Sean McDermott said that factored into going for it on 4th down. pic.twitter.com/b9MzeWonnW

— Heather Prusak (@haprusak) October 19, 2021

Good call. And next time, you know Allen is getting that one yard.