Jacoby Brissett will be better for the Dolphins in Week 3. Will it matter? - Brissett historically improves significantly in his second start of the year. The Raiders might thrash him anyway.

A breakdown of Tua Tagovailoa's replacement.

Tua Tagovailoa’s injury luck pushed him to the Dolphins with the fifth overall pick in 2020. Now the snakebitten young quarterback has seen that misfortune push him out of the starting lineup.

Wednesday’s news starting quarterback Tagovailoa will miss Week 3 — and potentially more — with a rib injury is grim news for Miami. For the second straight year, the Dolphins will be forced to start multiple quarterbacks early in the season. Fortunately, they were prepared for this. The team spent $5 million this offseason to replace Ryan Fitzpatrick with Jacoby Brissett.

Last fall, Fitzpatrick’s solid play kept Miami in the playoff hunt. This year, a horrible stretch from Brissett could derail the team’s postseason hopes before Thanksgiving.

#Dolphins coach Brian Flores announces that after further testing, Tua Tagovailoa has fractured ribs and won’t play this week.

— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) September 22, 2021

That’s exactly what Brissett was last Sunday: horrible. His second dropback of the season ended in a sack. His fourth was an interception. In 3.5 quarters, his offense scored zero points. It averaged 24 yards per drive and 3.4 yards per play. The Dolphins lost to the Bills 35-0.

This all makes Miami a very unpopular choice in Week 3 pools. A line that opened with the Dolphins at +1 has already swung as high as +6 before settling in around +4 on Wednesday. Fortunately for the Dolphins, a look at Brissett’s history suggests he’ll be better in his second extended appearance of the year, and not just because he couldn’t have been much worse in Week 2.

Jacoby Brissett typically needs some warm-up time

Brissett is one of the most-used backups of the past five seasons. He even briefly looked like a viable starter for the Colts in 2019 before a knee injury torpedoed Indianapolis’s playoff hopes, mashed his efficiency from the pocket, and ultimately convinced Philip Rivers, at his core a pork tenderloin smothered in gravy and brought to life by a shameful god, to pilgrimage toward his spiritual home of central Indiana.

Still, he’s been good enough to be someone’s No. 2 option throughout his career. This fall marks the fourth time since being drafted in 2016 he’s been thrust into action early in the year. He’s 1-3 in season debuts where he’s thrown at least four passes, which is bad. He’s also 3-0 in the games that follow, which is good!

Brissett has never been a volume passer. The key to these wins have been a combination of added efficiency from the pocket and extra attention to his running game, particularly in the red zone.

His passer rating has historically risen 20 full points between his first and second games of the season. His yards per attempt rise from an Osweiler-ian 5.9 to a merely Jared Goff-ish 7.2. He was responsible for two touchdowns in his four season debut games and seven in the three wins that followed.

That’s solid evidence things will be better in Week 3 with a Brissett-centric gameplan and some extra prep work. It may not be enough for a Miami upset, however, because …

The Raiders have a massive opportunity to go 3-0 for the first time since 2002

Normally a game against the Raiders would be a perfect get-right opportunity. Las Vegas had only 21 total sacks in 2020 and allowed opposing quarterbacks to throw for more than 263 yards per game (26th-best in the NFL). This year has been different.

Maxx Crosby has taken the “beating dudes up” brand he perfected at Eastern Michigan worldwide en route to two sacks and a league-best 10 quarterback hits to start the season. The Raiders’ 33.3 percent pressure rate is the fifth-highest in the NFL. The secondary, led by a suddenly stout Trayvon Mullen and steady veteran Casey Hayward, is no longer the giant game of Toss Across passers like Patrick Mahomes and Rivers, and hell, even Sam Darnold made it out to be.

A revived offense has scored nearly 30 points per game despite opening the season against two of 2020’s top defenses (Ravens, Steelers). That group could get an additional boost if Josh Jacobs is healthy, but Vegas still managed to fend off Pittsburgh on a day where its tailbacks rushed for 41 yards on 20 carries. If Brissett is going to topple Jon Gruden’s team, he probably can’t settle for a 166-yard aerial performance — especially with a rushing offense Football Outsiders pegs as middling at best.

Las Vegas has the chance to do something it hasn’t done in nearly two decades by getting through three weeks without a loss. More impressively, they’ll have to do so by getting through three teams that each won at least 10 games last season. In 2002 the team was powered by eventual MVP Rich Gannon, a player many had given up on before a late career revival. The ascension of Derek Carr’s game from apathetic shrug to genuine excitement wouldn’t be nearly as dramatic an arc, but another win and a spot jousting for the AFC West title would put him in the thick of debate over the league’s top player.

Standing in the way is Brissett, who can occasionally be very good but also occasionally approaches the quarterback position as though it is gas station performance art. He’ll be better in Week 3 because data tell us that’s what he does. It may not matter because the Raiders are working overtime to bury data that suggest they’re doomed to failure once more.