Julio Jones does not make the Titans a legitimate Super Bowl contender

Let's pour some cold water on the Titans hype created by the Julio Jones trade.

I apologize in advance, Titans fans. I know how excited you are after your team just traded for one of the three best wide receivers in the league and it only cost a 2022 second-round pick and a fourth-round selection in 2023.

I’d be pretty stoked, too.

Julio Jones is now a Titan, which may not have been the desired outcome for the neutral observer, but is certainly a fun development if the rest of the offense performs as it has since the team named Ryan Tannehill its starting quarterback back in 2019. Since that time, the Titans have owned the NFL’s most efficient offense and won 18 of 26 games, which doesn’t include a run to the AFC title game in 2019.

Now Julio Jones is here and people are discussing the Titans as if they’re real threats in the AFC.

From a 30,000-foot view, that hype makes some sense. Last year’s playoff appearance was a dud but Tennessee won 11 games with one of the worst defenses in the league and the front office poured a lot of resources into that side of the ball. If the defense can just be mediocre, the Titans should be one of the better teams in the AFC, right?

Well, not exactly. While the Titans did win 11 games last year, they didn’t actually play as you’d expect an 11-win team to play. Per Pro Football Reference, they out-performed their Pythagorean win expectation by nearly two full games. FiveThirtyEight’s numbers came to the same conclusion. So based on point differential, the Titans performed more like a 9-7 team and were the beneficiaries of unsustainable close-game luck. Tennessee went 7-2 in one-possession games, and a team’s record in close games tends to even out over a larger sample, so some regression is probably coming.

And that was against the league’s seventh-easiest schedule, according to Football Outsiders’ DVOA metric. On top of that, only five teams lost fewer games to injury/COVID than the Titans did last year, per Football Outsiders, and they finished at the top of the league in turnover margin, which is a notoriously volatile stat.

As bad as the Titans defense was a year ago, it was still very good at creating takeaways, which probably won’t happen again. It rarely does. And Ryan Tannehill, who had the fifth-best interception rate despite finishing fifth-worst in Pro Football Focus’ Turnover-Worthy Play Rate metric, will probably turn the ball over a bit more.

What I’m saying is the Titans were very lucky last year. Even on defense, where they weren’t very good.

And then there’s the 2021 schedule, which is a much tougher slate than what Tennessee faced last season. Playing in a weak AFC South should help a bit, but the Titans’ schedule also includes round robins with two of the better divisions in the league — the NFC West and AFC East — in addition to bouts with the Chiefs, Steelers and Saints. If the Titans win 11 games in 2021, they will have earned it.

I know what you’re thinking if you’re a Titans fan: That 2020 team did not have Julio Jones. This is obviously true, but that team did have Corey Davis and Jonnu Smith, who combined for over 1,300 yards and 13 touchdowns. In other words, Julio Jones is filling a Julio Jones-sized hole rather than providing a boost to last year’s offense.

How about the defense? Jones wasn’t the only addition to the roster, after all. The team also signed Denico Autry and Bud Dupree to help the pass rush and used a first-round pick on Caleb Farley to help bolster a secondary that was among the worst in the league. Autry was a smart signing but probably not a significant difference-maker. Dupree has only one double-digit sack season to his name and tore his ACL late last season. Farley, meanwhile, hasn’t played since 2019 and is already dealing with some serious back issues. Oh yeah, he’s also a rookie, so who knows what to expect from him.

My point is, all of these upgrades the Titans have made in the offseason aren’t necessarily sure things. And given the unconvincing nature of the team’s performance a year ago, Tennessee will have to be a far better team in 2021 just to make it back to the 11-win mark.

And guess what? I haven’t even covered ALL of the reasons to be pessimistic about this team. The guy who coordinated this hyper-efficient offense, Arthur Smith, is now coaching the Falcons (along with the defensive coordinator, Dean Pees, who helped Tennessee make that run to the AFC title game in 2019) and he’s been replaced by Todd Downing, who lasted exactly one year as the Raiders offensive coordinator.

There’s also Derrick Henry, who is now at an age that typically signals the beginning of the end for elite running backs. He’s coming off a career-high 397 touches, which easily led the league, and could fall off a cliff at any moment.

By trading for Julio Jones, the Titans added a good player and didn’t have to give up much in return. It’s a no-brainer move to make. But if things go south for the team in 2021, which would probably lead to Jones being released in the offseason, we may look back on this decision and wonder why a team that was so clearly headed for regression thought it was necessary to give up a second-round pick and $17.3 million to make an unrealistic push for a title that is so far out of reach.