How Trey Lance solves the one issue that has plagued Kyle Shanahan’s 49ers offense

Explaining how the No. 3 pick can unlock Shanahan's true genius.

Remember when we thought the 49ers trading three first-round picks for the right to draft Mac Jones was a legitimate possibility? The outrage is hilarious in hindsight. As someone who was particularly triggered by the possibility, let me say this: I would not have been mad at Kyle Shanahan for taking Jones at 3. I would’ve been disappointed.

Why is that? Well, ever since that 2012 season in Washington when we saw Kyle seamlessly blend option concepts into his wide zone offense to great effect, X’s and O’s nerds have been chasing that high ever since.

With the 49ers drafting Trey Lance, the scheme nerds can rejoice: Kyle Shanahan has another athletic quarterback he can involve in the run game.

Typically, it’s Kyle making things easier on his quarterback, but the opposite might be true for the Shanahan-Lance partnership. Shanahan has deservedly maintained the label of “offensive genius” throughout his time in San Francisco, but there is one area of his offense he has yet to figure out: when the 49ers line up in the gun.

Since 2017, the 49ers have lost 24.6 Expected Points when lined up in the gun, per Sports Info Solutions. That’s about to change.

Obviously, Lance’s presence in the backfield will give the running game a natural boost. Defenses will now have to account for the quarterback run game when fitting the run, which will open up space for the 49ers running backs. And with Lance on the roster, Shanahan can add some of the shotgun run concepts North Dakota State used in 2019. Some will be familiar to Shanahan, like this Inside Zone play with arc blocks from the tight end and H-back…

He used a similar concept with Griffin back in 2012…

But Lance isn’t the same kind of runner that Griffin was. As Shanahan explained during his time in Cleveland when he was coaching Johnny Manziel, you can’t really run those same concepts if the quarterback doesn’t have the track speed Griffin possessed:

“Everyone there wanted me to run the same stuff with him as we did with RGIII. Well, RGIII runs a 4.3, Johnny runs a 4.68. That is a different type of running style. Johnny is not going to outrun people on a zone read. Johnny needs to go downhill and make you miss which is quarterback draw, quarterback power, things like that.”

Lance is more of a downhill runner, so don’t expect Shanahan to just dust off his old 2012 playbook when designing a scheme around his new quarterback. He has been employing more power run concepts with pulling guards during his time in San Francisco, and that’s mostly what we saw out of the Bison’s QB run game. Whether there was a read element to the play…

Or it was a designed QB run…

Defenses being forced to account for the QB in the run game will obviously give the 49ers’ ground attack a boost, but the biggest benefit might be in the passing game, which is where they need the most help. San Francisco has had no problem passing the ball from under center during the Shanahan era, adding 57.8 Expected Points on those plays since 2017, per Sports Info Solutions.

But the spread passing game out of the gun hasn’t been so effective, and that’s mostly due to the fact that defenses haven’t respected the 49ers’ run game when the quarterback was in the gun. According to Sports Info Solutions, in 2020, the 49ers faced a loaded box (7 defenders or more) on only 15% of their dropbacks from the gun. That was the fourth-lowest rate in the league. Defenses are not going to be able to defend Lance the same way, and that will free up space on the outside for receivers to get open.

Shanahan did not get to call a lot of shotgun passes against those heavier boxes in 2020, but when he did, they worked. The 49ers averaged 0.34 EPA per dropback on those plays. That ranked third in the NFL.

Having Lance at QB will only increase those opportunities.

Because Lance is so young — he turns 21 in a few days — and Jimmy Garoppolo is still on the roster, it’s assumed that the rookie will be stuck on the bench for most, if not all, of 2021. But I would not be surprised if Shanahan is anxious to get him on the field as soon as possible. His inexperience may prevent Shanahan from calling certain passing concepts; but, on the whole, his presence in the backfield would open up even more possibilities.

Whenever Lance does take over, it’s going to be fun as hell to watch. But not so much for opposing defenses.