The boldest Super Bowl prediction for the Chiefs: Patrick Mahomes rediscovers big-play swagger

Patrick Mahomes is going to buck a surprising trend.

Let’s play a game.

Quarterback A has hit 21 plays of 40 yards or more since Week 12. Quarterback B has hit just four. Both quarterbacks are playing in Super Bowl LV. Which quarterback is Tom Brady and which is Patrick Mahomes?

Yup, it’s one of those counterintuitive answers. Brady is Quarterback A (with 21 40+-yard plays) and Mahomes is Quarterback B (with four). But my bold prediction for the Chiefs for the Super Bowl is that Mahomes will buck that trend. He’ll have five plays of 40-yards or more against the Buccaneers.

The Bucs sent blitzers on 39 percent of snaps, according to Pro Football Reference. which ranked Tampa as fifth-most in the NFL. In Week 12 against the Buccaneers, that opened up big throwing lanes for the quick-thinking Mahomes. He finished with 462 yards and three passing touchdowns.

Maybe Mahomes has had issues with big plays — if only because teams are doing everything they can to limit those chunk gains — but the Buccaneers aren’t going to play conservatively. That could be good news for Mahomes and his weapons like Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce, Mecole Hardman and Sammy Watkins.