What is Matthew Stafford worth in a trade and where will he land?

24.01.2021 20:52

Should we expect a huge blockbuster for Matthew Stafford?

The Detroit Lions and quarterback Matthew Stafford have mutually agreed to part ways this offseason, per multiple reports. So the already insane QB market will have another huge name, and the Lions will be looking to fill the most important position in the sport.

No, you’re not the only one with SO. MANY. QUESTIONS.

It’s rare to see a star quarterback demand a trade in the NFL, even if we’re witnessing it happening in Houston with Deshaun Watson and the Texans. (What an offseason it’s going to be!) But it’s even rarer to see both the quarterback and the team amicably agree they need to move in separate ways. So it’s hard to say what, exactly, Stafford is worth.

When healthy, Stafford, 33, is among the top 10 players at his position. He’s also due a modest amount of money over the next two years: $20 million in 2021 and $23 million in 2022. (It’s unclear if he would expect a new contract upon landing with a new team.)

Consider that Carson Palmer, at age 33, was worth a first- and second-round pick when the Bengals traded him in 2011. It was an eerily similar situation — Palmer was ready to retire, rather than play more for Cincinnati. Sam Bradford (when he was pretty clearly washed) was worth a first-round pick and a fourth-round pick. Cornerback Jalen Ramsey, an elite player demanding a trade, was worth two first-round picks.

My guess: Stafford is worth roughly 1400 points in draft assets, the equivalent of the No. 8 overall pick. You can also get to that total with a late first-round pick and a 2022 first-round pick (or 2021 mid-round first-round and second-round picks and a 2022 second-rounder).

Even after demanding a trade (which could have killed the Lions’ leverage in negotiations), there will be many suitors, which should push Stafford’s value to normal market price. So here’s who might be able to acquire Stafford, which means they have the draft assets and the finances in place to accommodate him.