Why Arkansas fans shouldn't freak out about an awful Signing Day (but USC fans should)

Arkansas had the 88th-ranked recruiting class. USC had the 78th. But USC fans should be the ones who are really freaking out.

When looking at the rankings of recruiting classes during early signing period from yesterday, two schools jumped out for a lot of people — Arkansas and USC.

Arkansas’s recruiting class was ranked 88th in the country, per 24/7’s recruiting rankings. That is … not good for an SEC school. That is not good for any Power Five school. That’s not all that great for an AAC school.

USC, on the other hand, was ranked 78th, just behind such notable schools as Bowling Green, Troy, Western Michigan and Toledo.

You might notice that USC’s ranking is 10 spots ahead of Arkansas. But here’s the thing: USC fans are the ones who should be really worried here.

It’s all about context.

Before we delve into this, let me say quickly: Yes, I know these two schools have nothing to do with one another. The only thing connecting them is that they’re both P-5 schools who probably feel their recruiting classes should have higher rankings. But I promise I’m getting somewhere, and it’s really about how to perceive these rankings, and how context changes everything.

(Also, one big huge caveat that these rankings are in many cases meaningless. These are teenagers. I get that. Some will turn into stars and others will flame out. Still, these rankings do a decent job predicting program success, and let’s just agree to accept their problems and move on.)

So, context. Arkansas is ranked 88th in this recruiting class, but an educated Arkansas fan has to be feeling OK this morning. Why? Arkansas has a new head coach, Sam Pittman, who’s been with the program for about 12 minutes. He and his cobbled together staff had to come together quickly and grab some players and … they did just that.

Pittman’s new staff, featuring a few ex-assistants from Missouri, was even able to convince a couple recruits who were leaning toward Mizzou to switch over to their side. They stole a few from a divisional rival, and in the end, got nine three-star recruits and one four-star recruit in their class.

Sure, SEC West rival Alabama had 19 four-star and three five-star commits, but that’s Alabama. By stealing a few from Mizzou, Arkansas kept things close with a rival, and seriously hurt Missouri in the process — the Tigers came in at 80th in the rankings. (Decent argument to be made that Mizzou should be more nervous than Arkansas!)

For an Arkansas staff with just a few weeks to work, they have to feel good about that haul. It’s going to take time, here, and the school will have to be patient. But Arkansas, even with the 88th ranked recruiting class in the nation, has reasons for optimism.

USC, on the other hand. Woof. USC does not have a new coach. Clay Helton was, and remains, their coach. USC is in Southern California, which, unlike Arkansas, is one of the most talent-stocked areas of high school football in the country. The population of Southern California is huge, and the college football is good.

USC has history. It’s in a Power 5 conference. It has an established, albeit under-performing coach. It’s in one of the best locations for recruiting in the country.

And it’s getting beat by Bowling Green for recruits.

This is nothing less than a disaster. There is no excuse for it. Did Helton and his staff assume they were going to be fired and just not bother recruiting? I’m just struggling to understand how this is possible. Just ask high school seniors who are USC fans in the 30 miles around your school and you can probably put together a top-30 class, and somehow they couldn’t do that.

Remember: It’s not just about the ranking. It’s about the context. USC is 10 spots higher than Arkansas, but Trojans fans should be the ones melting down right now.