Can Alabama make the College Football Playoff without Tua Tagovailoa?

Tua Tagovailoa suffered a season-ending injury, which means Alabama has to turn to backup Mac Jones to close out the season.

Welcome to Before The Snap, For The Win’s college football show where we’ll break down the sport’s trending storylines, examine each week’s biggest matchups and track the College Football Playoff and Heisman Trophy races.

Alabama quarterback Tua Tagovailoa was carted off the field with a hip injury in the second quarter of the Crimson Tide’s blowout win over Mississippi State on Saturday. The Heisman Trophy candidate had successful surgery Monday, and “he’s in good spirits and he’s doing well,” coach Nick Saban told reporters Wednesday.

Tagovailoa’s injury is a huge loss for Alabama and college football fans (whose teams don’t play the Crimson Tide), so how will that impact the team’s shot at making the College Football Playoff for a sixth straight year?

Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images

Despite losing their starting quarterback, the Crimson Tide’s chance to make the playoff actually went up a little. According to ESPN’s Playoff Predictor, they have a 44 percent chance to make the playoff, which is up from 40 percent last week and fourth-highest after Ohio State (86 percent), LSU (85 percent) and Clemson (84 percent).

However, they’re still No. 5 on the latest CFP rankings behind Georgia, but the Playoff Predictor, which gives the Bulldogs a 39 percent chance to make it, is likely anticipating a loss in the SEC championship game, which would then drop the team out of the top four.

Alabama sophomore quarterback Mac Jones is expected to take over for Tagovailoa. Jones started late last month in the Crimson Tide’s 48-7 win over Arkansas while Tagovailoa was recovering from an ankle injury, but that game, plus a handful of other plays in blowout wins, doesn’t seem like a large enough sample size to judge how well Jones could play against a team like Auburn, which is looking to play the spoiler in Alabama’s season.

This season, Jones has completed 45-of-65 passes (69.2 percent) for 566 yards, four touchdowns and one interception. Against the Razorbacks, he went 18-for-22 for 235 yards and three touchdowns, but it’s hard to judge his performance and potential from one game against a team that’s currently 0-6 in the SEC.

Alabama has an all-star group of receivers in DeVonta Smith, Jerry Jeudy and Henry Ruggs III, not to mention insanely athletic running back Najee Harris, who can help Jones as he transitions into that starting spot. But it’s still unclear whether he can lead the Crimson Tide to wins against Western Carolina on Saturday and Auburn in the regular-season finale.

If Alabama wins out and finishes 11-1, it needs to hope LSU wins the SEC championship game while other contenders, such as Oklahoma, Oregon or Penn State, lose again.