Ohio State's College Football Playoff chances have skyrocketed after first 3 games

When it comes to College Football Playoff chances, Ohio State is on the move.

After going into Week 1 with only a 5 percent chance (13th-best) to make the playoff, the Buckeyes have surged into the top-3 teams with a 44 percent chance to make it, according to ESPN’s Playoff Predictor algorithm. Though Clemson’s and Alabama’s chances have varied over the last couple weeks, they’re still Nos. 1 and 2, respectively.

Wisconsin and UCF are also rising up the list, while Michigan has plummeted after being No. 3 with a 41 percent chance to make the playoff going into Week 1.

The formula for the Playoff Predictor, which debuted last season, considers a variety of factors when determining each team’s playoff chances and how they change, including strength of record, number of losses, conference championships, independent status and the Football Power Index — or how well a team is playing based on expectations. The selection committee’s past behavior is also a consideration.

With Clemson, Alabama and Ohio State among the top three, it would likely now take a huge meltdown, loss or not, for that to change moving forward. The Tigers’ and Crimson Tide’s chances are almost twice as good as Ohio State’s, but Alabama is now more likely to win a national championship than Clemson — although they’re both still double-digits higher than the Buckeyes.

But there’s a reason Ohio State is on the rise.

Going into the season, there were questions about how transfer quarterback Justin Fields would fit in with first-year head coach Ryan Day. The early answer is just fine. Sure, Ohio State’s first three opponents weren’t the most challenging (Florida Atlantic, Cincinnati and Indiana), but the Buckeyes are dominating. Between Fields — who has a 70.3 completion percentage and has yet to throw an interception — and running back J.K. Dobbins — who is currently ranked No. 4 in the nation in yards — Ohio State’s offense is looking good early.

And with Miami (of Ohio) and Nebraska on the schedule to close out September, it seems like the Buckeyes will solidly hold onto that No. 3 spot on ESPN’s Playoff Predictor list.

However, the same cannot be said for the next two teams on this list because it’s all but guaranteed one of their chances will change after Week 4.

Georgia is No. 4 and Notre Dame is No. 5, and they play each other this weekend in Athens. The Bulldogs not only have a tougher schedule than the Fighting Irish, but they’re actually in a conference and it currently has five teams ranked in the top 10. And especially after being given a playoff spot last season and then getting blown out, Notre Dame needs this win more than Georgia does.

But let’s not get ahead of ourselves. Going into Week 4, here are the top-15 teams with the best chances to make it to the College Football Playoff, according to ESPN’s Playoff Predictor.

1. Clemson Tigers (3-0)

Playoff: 78 percent
Win championship: 28 percent

2. Alabama Crimson Tide (3-0)

Playoff: 75 percent
Win championship: 32 percent

3. Ohio State Buckeyes (3-0)

Playoff: 44 percent
Win championship: 8 percent

4. Georgia Bulldogs (3-0)

Playoff: 39 percent
Win championship: 8 percent

5. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (2-0)

Playoff: 33 percent
Win championship: 5 percent

6. Oklahoma Sooners (3-0)

Playoff: 36 percent
Win championship: 5 percent

7. LSU Tigers (3-0)

Playoff: 34 percent
Win championship: 7 percent

8. Wisconsin Badgers (2-0)

Playoff: 13 percent
Win championship: L1 percent

9. UCF Knights (3-0)

Playoff: 9 percent
Win championship: Less than 1 percent

10. Auburn Tigers (3-0)

Playoff: 8 percent
Win championship: 1 percent

11. Oregon Ducks (2-1)

Playoff: 8 percent
Win championship: Less than 1 percent

12. Penn State Nittany Lions (3-0)

Playoff: 6 percent
Win championship: Less than 1 percent

13. Florida Gators (3-0)

Playoff: 6 percent
Win championship: Less than 1 percent

14. Michigan Wolverines (2-0)

Playoff: 1 percent
Win championship: Less than 1 percent

15. Texas A&M Aggies (2-1)

Playoff: 1 percent
Win championship: Less than 1 percent