Inflation update: power bills and produce push inflation to 6.98pc

According to the monthly review of price indices released by the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS), the National Consumer Price Index for February 2026 increased by 0.27 per cent over January 2026 and was up by 6.98pc from the corresponding month of 2025.

Analysts at Topline Securities noted that this increase is in line with their estimate of 6.75-7.25pc.

Arif Habib Limited observed that this is the highest increase since October 2024.

The report showed that the Urban Consumer Price Index for February 2026 increased by 0.27pc over January 2026 and by 6.79pc from the corresponding month last year

The main contributors that increased from the previous month in terms of food were tomatoes (23.05pc), fresh fruits (11.48pc), pulse mash (8.19pc), beverages (1.65pc), meat (1.45pc), pulse moong (1.25pc), mustard oil (1.20pc), dry fruits (0.78pc), wheat products (0.68pc), readymade food (0.44pc) and pulse gram (0.34pc).

The main contributors that increased from the previous month in terms of non-food were electricity charges (10.03pc), cleaning and laundering (2.09pc), tailoring (2.04pc), solid fuel (1.71pc), and doctor (MBBS) clinic fee (1.05pc).

The main contributors that fell from the previous month were eggs (22.39pc), chicken (19.99pc), potatoes (15.89pc), pulse masoor (4.03pc), onions (3.90pc), fresh vegetables (3.88pc), besan (1.67pc), vegetable ghee (0.99pc), cooking oil (0.94pc), gur (0.39pc), sugar (0.35pc), gram whole (0.17pc), transport services (10.38pc) and stationery (0.03pc).

The Rural Consumer Price Index for February 2026 increased by 0.28pc over January 2026, and increased by 7.27pc over the corresponding month of the last year.

The Wholesale Price Index for February 2026 increased by 0.66pc over January 2026 and increased by 1.05pc over the corresponding month of the last year.

The sensitive price indicator (SPI), which tracks changes in prices of essential goods and services, showed modest shifts across different income quintiles in February 2026.

Compared to January 2026, all quintiles recorded slight declines, reflecting a marginal easing in short-term price pressures. Quintile 1 fell 0.15pc, quintile 2 edged down 0.02pc, quintile 3 declined 0.20pc, quintile 4 dropped 0.30pc, and quintile 5 decreased 0.27pc, while the combined index fell 0.12pc.

On a year-on-year basis, the SPI remained higher across all quintiles. The largest increase was seen in quintile 2 at 5.88pc, followed by quintile 3 at 5.02pc, quintile 1 at 4.80pc, quintile 4 at 4.35pc, and quintile 5 at 3.50pc. Overall, the combined index rose 4.60pc compared to February 2025, highlighting sustained inflationary pressures despite slight monthly easing.

Weekly changes in February 2026 showed short-term volatility. Quintile 1 recorded a 0.13pc rise in the first week, fell 0.62pc in the second week, climbed 1.11pc in the third week, and dropped 0.71pc in the final week. The combined index mirrored these fluctuations with weekly movements of 0.09pc, -0.59pc, 1.16pc, and -0.54pc, indicating that while prices experienced minor weekly swings, the overall trend remained upward on an annual basis.