Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella says Bill Gates told him his big bet on OpenAI would be a flop: ‘Yeah, you’re going to burn this billion dollars’
OpenAI is now the world’s most valuable private company, but when Microsoft originally invested $1 billion in the startup in 2019, it was less than a sure bet.
Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella faced pushback even from the company’s cofounder and original CEO, Bill Gates, he recalled during an interview on tech-focused YouTube channel TBPN.
“Remember this was a nonprofit, and I think Bill [Gates] even said, ‘Yeah, you’re going to burn this billion dollars,’” Nadella said.
Yet, Nadella and the Microsoft team weren’t swayed by the pushback. While Nadella noted he needed to go through the proper channels and get board approval because of the size of the investment, he said that despite the risk, “it was not that hard to convince anyone that this is an important area.”
“We kind of had a little bit of high risk tolerance, and we said, ‘We want to go and give this a shot,’” he added.
In 2019, Microsoft viewed the partnership and investment in OpenAI partly as a way to gain a foothold in AI and to help promote Azure’s AI capabilities. However, Nadella said, no one could have predicted the groundwork laid by that first investment, which led Microsoft to eventually pour $13 billion into OpenAI.
“In retrospect, who would have thought? I didn’t put in a billion dollars saying, ‘Oh yeah, this is going to be a hundred bagger,’” he said.
A spokesperson for Microsoft declined Fortune‘s request for comment.
Microsoft started reaping the benefits of its investment in October as OpenAI restructured to give Microsoft a 27% stake in the company, worth about $135 billion. Microsoft also relinquished its cloud exclusivity with OpenAI, but still struck a deal that would see OpenAI buy $250 billion worth of Azure services incrementally.
Fast forward to January, and Microsoft reports that OpenAI lifted its net income to the tune of $7.6 billion. OpenAI will reportedly pay 20% of its revenue through 2032 to its big tech backer under a reworked deal that also gives the AI company more flexibility on where it sources its compute (the foundational processing power behind AI), including from companies other than Microsoft, The Information reported.
Despite his initial hesitancy, Gates later found himself impressed by AI and its rapid development over just a few years.
In an appearance on The Tonight Show last year, the Microsoft cofounder told host Jimmy Fallon that thanks to the rise of AI, eventually humans won’t be needed for most things.
“There will be some things we reserve for ourselves,” he said. “But in terms of making things and moving things and growing food, over time those will be basically solved problems.”
A version of this story was published on Fortune.com on Oct. 30, 2025.
More on AI:
- Anthropic was supposed to be a ‘safe’ alternative to OpenAI, but CEO Dario Amodei admits his company struggles to balance safety with profits
- Sam Altman and Dario Amodei refused to hold hands at an AI summit weeks after OpenAI and Anthropic clashed in a tense Super Bowl ad war
- In the workforce, AI is having the opposite effect it was supposed to, UC Berkeley researchers warn
This story was originally featured on Fortune.com