How to Deter NATO's Greatest Fear: A Russian Invasion of the Baltic States

Jan Osburg, Stephen J. Flanagan, Marta Kepe

Security, Europe

Si Vis Pacem, Para Resistentiam – If You Want Peace, Prepare for Resistance

Si Vis Pacem, Para Resistentiam – If You Want Peace, Prepare for Resistance

In a rare and courageous step, the government of Lithuania recently issued a guide on how its citizens can resist a potential Russian invasion and occupation – by force of arms if need be. Given the disparity of conventional military forces between Russia and the three Baltic states, as well as Russia’s geographic advantage in the region, this is a measure that makes eminent sense. It is worthy of moral and practical support from the United States and other NATO allies. 

Lithuania hopes to deter aggression by making it clear to a potential attacker that even if an invasion should initially succeed the fight would be far from over, and thus loss of territory will not mean loss of the war. But preparing for resistance is not the only defensive measure Lithuania is taking to maintain the peace. Resistance is a key element of the “Total Defense” strategy which all three Baltic states have been pursuing to varying degrees in recent years, spurred on by Russian aggression in Crimea, eastern Ukraine, and elsewhere.

Total Defense involves the entire society, from the government to the private sector to individual citizens. Citizen involvement has been a vital part of Lithuanian thinking on national defense, and it is embedded in its Constitution, National Security Strategy and 2016 Military Strategy. Total Defense aims to make it harder for a potential aggressor to destabilize a country in the run-up to an attack, and, should this and other elements of deterrence fail to prevent an invasion, to make the country “indigestible” for any occupying force.  Estonia has long had a similar defense concept, and the Latvian government is committed to strengthening its National Guard and urging all citizens to play an active role in resisting any aggression.  

Read full article