The convention bounces have passed, and Clinton still leads big
Every two weeks we take stock of the latest national and battleground aggregates, using Pollster.com. The story of this update is: equilibrium. Hillary Clinton’s national polling dropped a couple of points from her post-convention high, giving her a still-significant 7-ish point lead. But down in the battleground states where things really matter, no state shifted more than a single point in the last two weeks. In essence, we seem to have stabilized, and have a new post-debate baseline.
People start paying attention after the Labor Day weekend, and the debates loom large. But for now, we seem to have found our normal.
| 8/30 | 8/17 | 7/28 | 7/19 | 6/30 | 6/10 | 5/12 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US | C+6.6 | C+8.6 | C+1.3 |
C+2.5 |
C+7 | C+4.6 | C+3.6 |
| AZ (11) | T+2 | TIED | TIED | TIED | C+1 | C+1 | C+3 |
| CO (9) | C+8 |
C+7 |
C+5 | C+5 | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| FL (29) | C+3 | C+4 | C+3 | C+2 | C+6 | C+2 | C+4 |
| GA (16) | T+2 | T+1 | T+3 | T+4 | T+3 | T+4 | T+5 |
| IA (6) | C+2 | C+2 | C+3 | C+3 | C+4 | C+4 | C+4 |
| MI (16) | C+8 | C+8 | C+6 | C+6 | C+8 | C+8 | C+11 |
| MO (10) | T+4 | T+5 | T+7 | T+6 | T+3 | T+5 | T+7 |
| NC (15) | C+3 | C+4 | C+4 | C+4 | TIED | T+1 | C+3 |
| NV (6) | TIED | T+1 | C+2 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| NH (4) | C+7 | C+6 | C+5 | C+4 | C+6 | C+7 | C+10 |
| OH (18) | C+2 | C+2 | TIED | C+2 | C+3 | C+1 | C+3 |
| PA (20) | C+7 | C+7 | C+3 | C+3 | C+4 | C+4 | C+7 |
| VA (13) | C+9 | C+8 | C+5 | C+5 | C+3 | C+4 | C+13 |
| WI (10) | C+9 | C+9 | C+8 | C+9 | C+10 | C+12 | C+12 |
In case you’re wondering, that’s a 341-191 Clinton Electoral College victory (with Nevada’s 6 EVs unassigned).