Forecast: Moscow will not push forward Karabakh peace process without having real guarantees of its good results

Moscow will not push forward Karabakh peace process without having real guarantees of its good results, Russian analyst Sergey Markedonov expressed this opinion to ArmInfo, commenting on the results of Saint Petersburg meeting of the presidents of Armenia, Russia and Azerbaijan. 

During the negotiations among the presidents of Armenia, Russia and Azerbaijan on June 20 in Saint Petersburg Ilham Aliyev noting the necessity to overcome status quo expressed assurance that this can be done only by "de-occupation of Azerbaijan's territories". Serzh Sargsyan confined himself to regular announcement of Yerevan's adherence to peaceful settlement of the conflict complaining that unfortunately such conflicts can not settled by only one side's wish. The presidents once again expressed readiness to hold meetings in this format regularly as well agreed on increase of number of OSCE observers on the Line of Contact. 

"Make haste slowly" principle remains the main one for Moscow in Karabakh settlement. Thus, one should expect fast and harsh response from Moscow on this or that event in Karabakh process only in case its other participants force Moscow to do that. I am convinced that the sides' readiness to achieve peace and compromise is the fundamental condition for settlement. Neither Putin nor Obama will loose Karabakh knot in place of Sargsyan and Aliyev", the analyst said. 

Markedonov notes that in Karabakh settlement unlike other post-soviet conflicts Moscow has successfully combined its personal initiatives with the actions within OSCE MG and not only has not put them in contradiction but also supplemented one with another. In this light it is no less important that the co-chair countries of the Minsk Group supported Saint Petersburg meeting. However, the three-sided meeting in Saint Petersburg gave a new impetus to the process considering Moscow's special role.

"Armenia and Azerbaijan unlike Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine are interested in Russia's mediation in the settlement: Yerevan as Moscow's military ally and Baku within its "seesaw policy" between the West and Russia. Moscow in its turn aims at maintaining balance between Armenia and Azerbaijan, de-escalating Karabakh confrontation and demonstrating its potential to the West, which is not going to propose its own peacekeeping know-how", the analyst summarized.