The Ugly Uncertainty About Syria's Cease-Fire

Daniel R. DePetris

Politics, Middle East

Washington and Moscow are struggling to get the pieces in place.

It’s make or break time for U.S. diplomacy in Syria: weeks of legwork, dozens of phone calls exchanged between Washington and Moscow and a marathon session of closed-door negotiations on February 22 produced a joint product codifying yet another cessation of hostilities agreement.

The principles of the international community’s latest attempt at a temporary cease-fire are well known to anyone who has been following the conflict since its inception. Hostilities between the Assad regime and opposition forces are to stop by midnight on February 27. Rebel groups who wish to partake in the cease-fire are required to let the United States or Russia know twelve hours before the fighting is scheduled to stop. Washington and Moscow will establish a mechanism to monitor the cease-fire and ensure that there is some level of transparency on violations. And the International Syria Support Group (ISSG) will form a task force, in part to generate a communication flow among all parties to the conflict. Last but not least, the U.S.-Russia deal excludes the Islamic State and Jabhat al-Nusra from the cease-fire—offensive military actions against both groups are perfectly legitimate under the agreement.

At its core, the February 22 de-escalation accord is the third attempt by members of the ISSG to tamp down the violence in Syria. UN Security Council Resolution 2254 and the original cessation of hostilities agreement drafted on February 11 were either quickly violated by the Assad regime or ignored by the Russians—knowing full well that the Security Council and the ISSG would be unable to exact repercussions. Secretary of State John Kerry and his foreign ministerial colleagues are hoping beyond all hope that this latest truce will do what the previous two did not: cease the killing enough to allow humanitarian aid into dozens of besieged Syrian cities, and jolt a dormant peace process out of its coma.

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