South China Sea: Beijing Is Winning, but Here's How to Retake the Initiative
Peter Layton
Security, Asia
A China that learns the wrong lessons might be worse than a China that gains the control it seeks over the South China Sea.
China is once again causing concern in the South China Sea, this time by moving surface-to-air missiles to the Paracel Islands.
Over several years, this dispute has evolved into a clash of opposing strategies, with China steadily expanding its territorial, economic and military footprint in the South China Sea while other countries counter with either “balancing” or “rules-based order” strategies. So far, China's strategy has proved more successful. Why have these “balancing” and “rules-based order” strategies failed? What strategies might succeed?
Balancing strategies stress building greater relative power, usually militarily. A state can then threaten or employ violence to dissuade an adversary from taking unwanted actions. An example is Vietnam, which is modernizing its naval and air forces, improving its paramilitary forces (Coast Guard and Fishing Patrol Agency), purposefully strengthening relationships with India, Russia, Japan and the United States, and expanding its defense industry. Less obviously, the freedom of navigation transits through the South China Sea by U.S. Navy warships are also examples of balancing with the implicit threat of armed response in the event of trouble.
Such strategies, however, play to China’s strengths, and so far have been easily countered.
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